There may not be two greater words in the sports language: Playoff Football.
…
Okay, maybe “March Madness,” is up there. And “Game 7,” too.
But you get the idea.
Today, the second season starts for three of our local football teams.
It doesn’t matter anymore that Amesbury (8-0) went undefeated during the regular season with a point differential of plus-212, earning the No. 2 seed in the Division 7 state tournament. If the Redhawks take No. 15 South Hadley lightly and don’t show up with their best, it’ll all be over in a blink. Then conversely, it doesn’t matter anymore that Triton (3-5) lost two heartbreakers over the last two weeks, dropping them down to No. 15 in Division 6. With the correct mindset, that will factor in 0.0% if the Vikings want to pull off the upset down at No. 2 Abington.
The next few weeks, what happened during the regular season is irrelevant.
So let’s predict if we’ll have any local teams in next week’s quarterfinals.
FRIDAY’S GAMES No. 9 Nantucket (8-0) at No. 8 Pentucket (5-3), 2 p.m. (D6)
For Pentucket, all hail the mighty MIAA algorithm.
We mentioned this in the bracket release article over the weekend, but it was only a miniscule 0.06 percentage points that stood in the way of this game being on the Cape. Quite literally, it’s the difference of a few points here and there during the year that saved the Panthers from having to drive multiple hours, and then hop on a ferry.
Instead, now Nantucket has to do that.
And that record is certainly a gaudy one to look at.
The Whalers have impressed in every aspect this year, averaging 36.5 points per game on offense while surrendering just 9.0 on defense for an overall scoring margain of 292-72. But while their final “Average Margain of Victory” metric was the highest of any Division 6 team (14.0000), their “Opponent Rating” metric was the lowest of anybody inside of the top-28 (-8.3240) — and there’s only 32 teams in the division. Nantucket didn’t play a single other team that made the playoffs this year, with the combined records of its opponents currently sitting at 17-47.
Now, obviously you can only play the teams on your schedule, and Nantucket handled business every week.
But Pentucket is going to clearly be the best team the Whalers have seen.
Steven Harper and the Panthers didn’t have to do much in the pouring rain to get the win over Ipswich last week, but the senior QB is still completing 72.6% of his passes (82-of-113) for 1,244 yards and 13 touchdowns. Then he’s got the weapons between Nick Carrion, Jackson Miller, Quinn Vuylsteke, Cooper Zaneski and Liam Foley.
The travel and jump in competition will be tough to overcome for the visitors.
PREDICTION: Pentucket 35, Nantucket 24.
Revere (3-5) at Newburyport (2-6), 6 p.m.
Definitely an intriguing non-playoff matchup here.
It appears that both of these teams are currently playing their best football.
Revere is on a two-game winning streak coming into this one, and even the week prior to the start of that, they took a close 12-8 loss to a solid Lynn Classical team. Meanwhile, Newburyport beat rivals Lynnfield and Triton in consecutive games, before hanging tough last week against a North Reading team that’s the No. 5 seed in the Division 5 tournament.
These games are always tough to predict, but I’ll stick with the home team.
Newburyport has shown a lot of growth over the past few weeks, as senior captains Jack Miller and Paul Suozzo have refused to let their team quit. But where the Clippers have thrived recently has been defensively, where TJ Skiba, Henry Thurston and Bennett Beaulier have raised that unit to the next level.
PREDICTION: Newburyport 21, Revere 18.
No. 15 South Hadley (4-4) at No. 2 Amesbury (8-0), 6:30 p.m. (D7)
Absolutely no doubt in my mind that coach Colin McQueen will have his “Bury Boys” ready.
Just take a look at this stat.
Across the initial four years of the MIAA statewide playoff format, Amesbury in Division 7 has been a No. 2 seed, a No. 4 seed and a No. 6 seed twice. And during that stretch, the Redhawks have won all four of their first-round playoff games by a combined score of 148-42. Their average margain of victory has been by 26.5 points, with their “closest” game being a 24-6 win over Boston Latin Academy in the 2022 first round.
Amesbury is allergic to the letdown.
Now as the No. 2 seed once again — just 0.028 percentage points shy of being No. 1 — the Redhawks are ready to go on another Super Bowl run. Last week’s 40-0 blowout of Manchester Essex (No. 5 in D7) was eye-opening in how absolutely dialed in the veteran, experienced Redhawks are right now. Between Joe Puleo (70-600-10), Joe Celia (62-432-9), Connor Scialdone (65-409-5) and Justin Dube (49-241-6), everything is working in the running game. Then Dube has been money when asked to throw, completing 16-of-19 passes this year for 404 yards and 5 more TDs.
Meanwhile, it’s a different story on the other sideline.
South Hadley has had its moments this year, but enters this game having lost two in a row. The Tigers have played two other playoff teams in Hoosac Valley (No. 5 in D8) and Lee (No. 1 in D8), and lost both of those games by a combined score of 61-6. They then went 1-2 in their three other games played against teams with winning records, beating Agawam (16-6) and losing to Chicopee (38-14) and Easthampton (22-2).
The Tigers have scored just two points over their last two games … total.
PREDICTION: Amesbury 40, South Hadley 7.
No. 15 Triton (3-5) at No. 2 Abington (7-1), 7 p.m. (D6)
True to its nickname, Abington comes at you in waves.
Following a season-opening loss to perennial state power Duxbury — a 52-44 shootout — the Green Wave have ripped off seven wins in a row. They’re a deep, experienced team with plenty of offensive firepower (34.4 ppg), and with the third-highest “Opponent Rating” in the division, they’re battle-tested.
Triton will be facing some choppy waters here.
But at their best, the Vikings and their single-wing offense have the ability to run the ball, slow the game down and limit possessions. Nobody in the Cape Ann League welcomed the idea of having to tackle Carl Lucy (166 car., 1,309 yds, 23 total TDs), and the Green Wave won’t enjoy it either. But if the Vikings want to pull off the stunner, then Athan Eggleston, Jake Conroy, Everett Romano and Sam Harding will also need to play their best games to help lighten the load.
Hey, crazier things have happened in sports.
PREDICTION: Abington 35, Triton 14.
SATURDAY’S GAME Governor’s Academy (0-7) at Lawrence Academy (4-3), 2 p.m.
Will be tough for Governor’s Academy to end the year picking up its first win.
But at this point, coach Luke Boria has already extracted plenty of intel from this year’s group moving forward. Between athletes like Porter LaLime, Aiden Bly, Seven Pridgen, Lucas Acuna, Thatcher Lewis, Brandon Hennessey and Owen Denio, the Govs have building blocks looking ahead to next year.
Lawrence Academy has dropped two in a row, and will want to end its regular season with a win. There’s also a chance that the Spartans need this one to make a bowl game.
PREDICTION: Lawrence Academy 36, Governor’s Academy 14.
LAST WEEK: 4-1.
OVERALL SEASON RECORD: 27-8.