Almost a year to the day Saturday, Brandon Beane faced the same post-draft questions he did the previous year.
Last year the Buffalo Bills were pegged to select a linebacker early in the draft to replace Tremaine Edmunds, who bolted for a major contract in free agency. Beane took linebacker Dorian Williams in the third round, only to immediately announce he wouldn’t be Edmunds’ replacement.
So ensued an offseason’s worth of questions about who would start at middle linebacker. It was the main storyline during training camp and it remained a public mystery until the week leading up to the season opener.
And then everyone saw how well Terrel Bernard played, recording 143 tackles, 6 ½ sacks, three interceptions and three fumble recoveries. Beane’s insistence the Bills could replace Edmunds internally proved to be true.
Now Beane is facing the same questions, only about wide receivers. Why didn’t he trade up in the first round of the draft? After selecting Keon Coleman with the first pick in the second round, why didn’t the Bills get another with their second second-round pick or even with their third-round pick? Why didn’t they take one later in the draft?
Beane has remained steadfast throughout the offseason that the Bills like the receivers and tight ends they have on the roster. And not in the typical we-love-our-guys type of way all coaches and executives use — it’s apparent he believes the statement to be true.
It’s fair to feel tepid about replacing an All-Pro like Stefon Diggs with an unproven 20-year-old and maybe the decision will flop, but Beane’s track record shows he deserves the benefit of the doubt until shown otherwise. Beane crafted a roster that produced more wins (48) than anyone in the NFL but the Chiefs (51) over the last four seasons.
Plus, three of his first four top picks, Josh Allen, Ed Oliver and A.J. Epenesa (second round in 2020), have earned second contracts — with Greg Rousseau and Dalton Kincaid showing they’re on track for the same. The only first-round pick who hasn’t netted a second deal with the team is Edmunds, who signed a deal with the Bears so lucrative that it was out of Buffalo’s price range.
“We’re going to keep spinning this roster and see if there’s a few pieces between now and camp,” Beane said. “… You’re never happy, you’re never, like, content, like we got it figured out. But I’m excited about the way that the board fell.”
Critics of Beane’s decisions not to take a receiver before the fourth round in any of his first six drafts were foolish to think his stance on the position would change. Beane knows good receivers are required to win and he took Coleman, but he wasn’t willing to spend additional draft assets to pay for one at a higher premium and the numbers back him.
Twenty-one receivers taken in the second round between 2003 and 2022 made the Pro Bowl, three more than first-round receivers during that stretch. Twenty-two second-round receivers went to the Super Bowl during their first or second seasons — with 11 championships — while only two first-rounders made the Super Bowl and none won.
Even established veteran receivers who are traded haven’t produced the desired results Bills fans are hoping for and that’s a Super Bowl. Over the last 20 years, 13 receivers who finished in the top-10 in yards or receptions have been traded the following year, three got to the Super Bowl in their first season with their new team and none of them won.
While those receivers saw increases in receptions, yards and touchdowns, they brought their new teams fewer than two wins on average during their first season. Diggs led the NFL in receptions and yards in his first season, as the team went 13-3 and advanced to the AFC championship game, but never got any farther with him on the roster.
“I just feel like the way our offense is set up, the pieces we already have, let’s just add to it and make sure we have the depth in other places,” Beane said, “because we all know you have some years where you get injured and if you don’t have viable pieces ready to come in, it doesn’t matter what you did. If you can’t block and run the ball and do those things. You can have Jerry Rice and all the great receivers out there, if Josh (Allen) is running for his life it won’t matter.”
The sole objective of the offseason should have been to get younger and cheaper and do it in a way to make Allen the focal point of the entire franchise. Beane accomplished the first two objectives and coach Sean McDermott called Allen the “face of the franchise” prior to the draft.
The Bills give Allen a lot of responsibility through his arm and legs, but they always seem to reel him in during the biggest games, odd when those are the moments in which he seems to thrive most.
Instead of attempting to beat the Chiefs in the AFC divisional round last year in a track meet to mask defensive injuries, McDermott took the air out of the ball and shortened the game. Even in the 13 seconds game that finished 42-36, it was 26-21 and Allen was 18 of 23 for 212 yards with two minutes left, before finishing 27 of 37 for 329 yards.
Going all-in on Allen means providing him with all the weapons he needs, but that doesn’t mean All-Pro or Pro Bowl receivers are required, given 10 of the last 15 Super Bowl champions didn’t have a Pro Bowl receiver. A variety of options that can run after the catch and make life easier for Allen is sufficient and the Bills have done that, from Coleman to Curtis Samuel to Dalton Kincaid.
There might be a few additions here and there, like signing receiver Quintez Cephus Monday, but this is the roster. So fans might as well give Beane’s new direction a shot.
“Our cap is our cap,” Beane said. “So if you’re expecting something big or anything like that, there’s no trade coming. Nothing like that. I know everyone links us to every trade in the league, but no, we’re in pretty good shape.”