Statistics don’t always tell the whole story. Statistics can be misleading. But sometimes a statistic is too juicy to deny.
There was one statistic from the Buffalo Bills inexplicable 30-13 loss to the floundering Miami Dolphins so glaring that it might as well whack you on the head.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Bills quarterback Josh Allen was pressured 17 times. Only four of them arrived in less than 2 ½ seconds. It’s a tale that sums up Buffalo’s passing game for most of the season.
Allen drops back to pass, holds the ball, praying for someone to get open before pulling off a magical feat or taking a sack. Or his first read isn’t open and he shows no trust in the rest of his progressions, takes off too early and reveals even he can’t make superhuman plays all the time.
The most common blame for those struggles — from analysts, former players or fans — has been laid at the feet of a receiving corps. It’s fair to say the group lacks a top-end talent or an explosive player a defense must handle with caution.
And it got worse when tight end Dalton Kincaid, the team’s leading receiver, left the game with another injury, this time a pulled hamstring.
The Bills acknowledged their issues last year by acquiring Amari Cooper at the trade deadline. And they did it again by leaking to NFL Network that they offered the Dolphins first- and fourth-round picks for star Jaylen Waddle, only to be rebuffed by their division rival.
“It’s an important part of our offense,” Bills head coach Sean McDermott said. “We’ve got a great quarterback, and you want to be able to move the ball two-dimensionally. We should be able to move the ball with Josh through the air.”
Squaring all the blame on the receivers is lazy. It’s a cop out.
Yes, receivers are not open enough. But why aren’t they open? Yes, Allen hasn’t played to his MVP standard. But why isn’t he playing to that level?
Before Curtis Samuel signed a three-year deal with the Bills in 2024, averaged 45.3 receptions for 483 yards over seven seasons. In the five seasons he played at least 10 games, Samuel put up 59 receptions for 648 yards per year.
Elijah Moore averaged 50 receptions for 540.5 yards in his four seasons before arriving in Buffalo. Joshua Palmer had 45.5 receptions for 571.8 yards in his first four seasons with the Los Angeles Chargers.
Moore played with nine starting quarterbacks between the Browns and Jets. Samuel played with 11 quarterbacks in Carolina and Washington. And he even had his best season in 2020, catching 77 passes for 851 yards — with Joe Brady calling the Panthers’ plays.
So why do those three receivers have a combined 27 receptions for 411 yards? Everyone was quick to blame Stefon Diggs’ declining production following Brady’s promotion to offensive coordinator in 2023 on accrued wear and tear.
It was easy to label Diggs as washed up because it conveniently fit his villain status. But since leaving — including 16 catches for 228 yards against the Bills with two teams — Diggs has shown he still has gas in the tank, even if his baggage isn’t worth the production.
Gabriel Davis, for all his limitations, caught 27 touchdowns for the Bills and never finished with fewer than 549 yards in four seasons. He went catchless four times in seven games after Brady took over and scored two touchdowns.
It’s a group of receivers that, despite lacking a big-time threat, should be more productive than they have been this season.
“If guys aren’t getting involved in ways they probably should, that’s strictly on me,” Brady said. “And so it’s something that, as a staff, we continue to look at and try to find ways and each game is going to be different. We know that we’re going to find different ways to win football games.”
Even the players who had success last season aren’t seeing similar results this year. Khalil Shakir had a breakout season with Brady last season, but over 27% of his routes have come on screen passes.
Keon Coleman averaged over 19 yards per catch as a rookie and his average depth per target was 15.2 yards downfield. He’s down to 10.3 per catch and an ADOT of 11.6.
Although some of Coleman’s struggles can be placed on him, whether it be lack of confidence or maturity. When asked about Coleman making enough plays out of his chances, Allen paused far too long before referencing his 35-yard touchdown in saying, “Got one today. So, yeah.”
“I can promise you (effort) gets addressed when and where it needs to be,” McDermott said. “There are times, like any player or performer, where it’s exactly where it needs to be and there are times when it’s not and then we have to address it to get it, hopefully where it needs to be.” It’s been good at times and other times, you can improve, for sure.”
But there is still a utilization problem. Kincaid entered the game only playing 44% of the snaps, by far the lowest of any team’s leading receiver this season.
For all Brady’s versatility and intelligence in crafting Buffalo’s No. 1 rushing offense, he hasn’t shown the same capabilities with the passing game. The Bills are 14-1 when their starting running back — all but once it’s been James Cook — gains 100 scrimmage yards, but 14-9 when they don’t.
Brady made his bones at LSU, where Joe Burrow could overwhelm opponents with Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson. But it’s not 1986 and using heavy personnel on 44% of the snaps like he did through the first three quarters isn’t going to cut it in the NFL.
“There’s some elements where you want predictability,” Brady said. “There’s a time and place when you know what we’re running and we know what we’re running and we still need to be able to execute. … We want you to think we’re running this, because we ran it a lot and now we’re setting up the naked play-action off of it.”
If there’s blame to fall on general manager Brandon Beane, it’s not for failing to acquire talent. But it is reasonable to wonder how the collection he’s assembled fits together.
Moore, Samuel and Shakir are similar players who thrive running short routes that utilize their quickness and change of direction. Kincaid also thrives in the slot and there is some belief Coleman would do well there too because of his yards-after-catch ability, but there are only so many snaps to go around.
The Bills have forfeited their lethal intermediate passing game — the one that made Allen a star — to a YAC-based offense, adopting a growing NFL trend by reducing formational width to create better blocking angles and simplifying reads by forcing more defenders into the box.
But an offense, especially one built on running the ball, has to be able to push the ball downfield at times and Allen’s percentage of throws of 20 air yards is 10.8%, the second-lowest of his career.
“We speak in truth and honesty and we both hold each other to the same accountability,” Brady said. “… (Players) can tell when people are BSing them or not speaking the truth. And all they want is the truth and find ways to have a solution with it. … I never want to see (Allen) in that mood after a game. So I got to do everything I can so that he’s not in that position after a game.”
NOTES: TE Dalton Kincaid (hamstring) is week to week. … DE Landon Jackson (knee) won’t play this week but wasn’t ruled out for the season. … DT T.J. Sanders (knee) will have his 21-day window to return from injured reserve this week.