New England Patriots middle linebacker Robert Spillane, the captain of the defense, was seen in the locker room on Wednesday wearing a walking boot.
Is that a metaphor for where the Patriots are, “limping” after their disastrous second-half fall against the Buffalo Bills and “limping” into their game on Sunday night, prime time, against the Baltimore Ravens?
The bad news for the Patriots is two-fold: The Ravens roster is loaded and they need a win just as badly as they do; and the nagging fear that this season could be turning into a house of cards.
The good news is that even if they lose, the Patriots could still finish with the No. 2 seed in the AFC.
The best news? If the Patriots win on Sunday, they can prove to themselves —and the rest of the NFL — that a Super Bowl run is still very much on the table.
Here’s a look at some key aspects of where they stand:
Defense
My Captain Obvious view: The Patriots’ defensive front is thin, especially after Milton Williams’ injury. In the last three games, opposing running backs have averaged well over 100 yards combined.
The defense has managed only 13 turnovers (including one on special teams), with just 5 fumble recoveries and 8 interceptions — numbers near the bottom of the league.
Pressure on opposing quarterbacks has also been lacking, a weakness that Josh Allen exposed with a dominant second-half run. With only 29 sacks — half as many as league-leader Denver’s 58 — the Patriots haven’t generated consistent pass rush. Their leading pass-rusher, Harold Landry, is 14th in sacks (8.5) and 25th in pressures (23 league-wide).
The injury to Spillane only worsens things. Depth is a real issue, which makes sense given this is just Year 1 of the new culture under Vrabel. Shoring up that depth will almost certainly be an offseason priority.
Offense
Outside of TreVeyon Henderson’s explosive runs, the Patriots haven’t shown they can reliably run out the clock late in games — unlike the Bills, who did just that on Sunday. Henderson’s breakaway ability is obvious (four touchdown runs of 50-plus yards this year), but the offense doesn’t have a consistent ground game.
Setting aside that unraveling against the Bills — really just the second half —the offense overall has carried this team, with Drake Maye distributing the ball all over the field.
Puzzlingly, Stefon Diggs has seen very little usage lately: just 8 catches for 72 yards on 11 targets over the last three games, without a touchdown. That’s a sharp drop after his 9-catch, 105-yard performance (on 11 targets) against the Jets.
Hunter Henry has become one of Maye’s most dependable targets, but last week he was limited to three targes and one catch, dropping a third-and-12 conversion. Austin Hooper, who has two straight games without a target, has disappeared from the radar.
Schedule
The relative softness of the Patriots’ schedule, especially a stretch against lesser quarterbacks, may finally be catching up to them. Against Josh Allen and the Bills on Sunday, the defense simply couldn’t keep up, giving up five straight touchdown drives in just 22 minutes.
Ravens Game
Sunday night’s matchup in Baltimore is a potential game-changer. The Patriots could lose to the Ravens and still wind up with the AFC East title, likely clinging to the No. 2 seed. But a win in Baltimore, against a tough playoff contender, would be the ultimate rebound and would prove that this Vrabel/Maye team really is a contender.
The Ravens pose a major threat, boasting Derrick Henry at running back and Lamar Jackson’s running ability at quarterback, two dynamic threats that could stress a thin Patriots defense.
On paper, the Ravens are better than the Bills. Add in the fact they need this win to keep pace with the Steelers in the AFC North (currently trailing by a game with three left), while the Patriots need it for “playoff” momentum heading into the final two games against the Jets and Dolphins.
Summary
Drake Maye will have to play at an MVP level for the Patriots to escape Baltimore with a win. He needs to overcome both the injury bug and the sloppy mistakes that plagued New England last week. The coaches will need to be at their best as well, especially given the roster’s current limitations.
A Patriots victory on Sunday night could erase a lot of the disappointment from their collapse against the Bills. A loss would turn the final stretch of the season into a survival contest—though, even then, the No. 2 seed remains in play until help arrives.
It’s tough at the top, where no limping is allowed.
You can email Bill Burt at bburt@eagletribune.com.