The road to the Super Bowl is as dangerous and unpredictable as The Hunger Games. When it comes to this year’s New England Patriots, though, the odds just may be ever in their favor.
Consider that head coach Mike Vrabel’s 2025 edition is the eighth team in Patriots history to win 13 or more games. Recognize that six of the previous seven advanced to the Super Bowl.
2026 NFL Playoff staff predictions
That statistical nugget adds some gravity to what’s been a surprising, satisfying regular season for New England. Booking your plane tickets to Santa Clara, Calif. for February 8 isn’t automatic … but more often than not, when the Patriots are this good they go bowling.
Look around the American Football Conference playoff bracket. It is either a changing of the guard, or a one-year respite from the usual suspects? Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes are home nursing their wounds. So, too, are Joe Burrow’s Bengals and Lamar Jackson’s Ravens. The only quarterback in the field who’s even been to a Super Bowl is Pittsburgh’s Aaron Rodgers — and that was a lifetime ago in Green Bay.
Instead, vying for that coveted Super Bowl spot are second-year gunslingers like New England’s Drake Maye and Denver’s Bo Nix; young ‘time to prove it’ guys in LA’s Justin Herbert, Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence and Houston’s C.J. Stroud; and one who’s not like the others, perennial MVP candidate Josh Allen of Buffalo.
There’s no juggernaut QB you must automatically pencil in for the conference final. In other words, every team has to be thinking “Why not us?”
Why not the Pats? For starters, Sunday night’s wild card opponent, the Chargers, are better than people around here think. Their head coach, Jim Harbaugh, has more playoff wins than Vrabel (OK, most of those came while he was in San Francisco). They destroyed New England, 40-7, last December (OK, that was a totally different team). They have a very dangerous offense and a decent defense.
So a Patriots’ win Sunday night is not going to be easy. It’s the NFL playoffs … it’s not supposed to be easy. Fans might look at Herbert and scoff at a guy who has never won anything of significance, either at the University of Oregon or in the NFL. But can’t Charger fans look at Maye and say the same thing?
That’s the beauty of these 2026 AFC playoffs. Every fan base can look at the opponent’s quarterback and say ‘He’ll goof it up at the end, he’s beatable’. Even Allen, who’ll catch a lot of grief if he doesn’t finally win the conference with Mahomes and Burrow out of the way.
Can Maye upset the apple cart and emerge as the guy who took his turn rather than waiting for it?
Everything he’s done so far in his second season of pro football says, loudly, yes.
Maye makes plays, down the field, both on and off script. He has comeback wins on his resume, he’s no longer turning the ball over and he leads a confident team. He is, in a word, the franchise.
Whether or not he wins the NFL Most Valuable Player Award is immaterial — and given the award winner’s record in Super Bowls the last 20 years, why do Patriots fans even want it?
It’s not unusual for a young quarterback to take his team to a conference final, either. Mahomes and Burrow did so in their second seasons; Allen and Indianapolis’ Andrew Luck did so in their third. You’ve got to go back to Seattle’s Russell Wilson a dozen years ago to find a second year QB who won the Super Bowl … but we’ll cross that bridge in February.
So that’s where I’m going to set the goal for this Patriots team — make the AFC championship game (at home against Buffalo if my predictions are right). At that point they’d be playing with house money … and even though no one expected them to earn the No. 2 seed in these playoffs last September, I’m not prepared to say this weekend is icing on the cake.
History tell us 13- and 14-win teams don’t come around all that often. Making the playoff runs count when they do makes the difference between legends and also-rans.
And with no opponents with superior talent or deep pedigree in their way, there’s no reason Maye’s Pats can’t build their own legacy. Starting on Sunday.
Matt Williams has occasionally covered pro football for The Salem News since 2008. You can contact him at MWilliams@salemnews.com and follow along on Twitter/X @MattWilliams_SN