The New England Patriots are coming off an 8-9 season and a third-place finish in the AFC East, a campaign that certainly falls short of the recent standard established by this franchise.
But oddsmakers don’t project much of a leap for the Pats in 2023-24, according to several different betting markets as of early April.
At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Patriots have a projected win total of 7.5 at this point in the offseason. The over is juiced to -132, which equates to an implied probability of 56.9% of finishing with eight or more wins. The under is priced at +106 at the time of this writing.
For context, New England’s win total is one victory shorter than it was trading at last year. According to the database at sportsoddshistory.com, the Patriots had a win total of 8.5 last season with the over listed at +100 and the under going at -120.
In fact, this year’s win total is the lowest mark for the Patriots since they had an over/under of 6.5 wins prior to the 2001 season. They had a win total of eight victories entering 2002 but have mostly hovered around the double-digit mark for the last two decades.
Comparing New England’s current standing to the rest of the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills have the highest win total at 10.5 (over juiced to -130) at FanDuel. The Miami Dolphins are listed at 9.5 (under priced at -142), while the New York Jets sit at 9.5 victories (over trading at -134) amid rumors regarding trading for Aaron Rodgers.
With third-year quarterback Mac Jones under center, the Patriots are facing an uphill battle in their own division, and their postseason odds reflect that. New England is +235 to make the playoffs at FanDuel, an implied probability of 29.8%. The Pats are priced at -300 to miss the seven-team postseason in the AFC.
For comparison, the Bills are -245 to make the playoffs after winning the division in each of the last three seasons. The Dolphins are actually -115 to miss the postseason and -105 to make the dance. New York is -162 to notch a playoff berth for the first time since losing in the AFC title game in 2010.
The Patriots have missed the playoffs in two of the last three years. With quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow leading the way, notching a postseason berth is as difficult as ever.
Of course, the offseason is still young and teams still have several months to improve their roster. The 2023 NFL Draft is slated to take place on the final weekend in April in Kansas City, Missouri.
The Patriots have a pair of top 50 picks in this upcoming draft, including the No. 14 overall selection. These odds could change based on what takes place over the next month.