This is not just about paper, says local NBA scout Jeff Nelson.
This is about facts:
“Everything points to (Oklahoma City Thunder),” said Nelson, referring to the start of the NBA Finals Thursday night. “Their record is 80-19. They were 29-1 against the Eastern Conference teams. They are in the top three in offense and defense. That’s a lethal combination.”
The Thunder’s year has very much resembled that of the 2023-24 Boston Celtics: A box-to-wire assault.
And there’s more going the Thunder’s way, according to Nelson.
As in the MVP of the league in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and two All-Star caliber players, three-level scorer Jalen Williams and Chet Homgren, a 7-foot-1 inside-out scorer, in the starting lineup.
“They have the best player in (Shea Gilgeous-Alexander), which is always important in the finals,” said Nelson, of Bradford. “And OKC’s second tier stars are better, too. It’s just a tough matchup for the Pacers.”
He includes Jalen Williams and Chet Homgren, both offering different challenges – Williams ability to score all three levels and Holmgren’s inside-out talents at 7-foot-1.
The Pacers, believes Nelson, have a little bit of fool’s gold coming off their series with the New York Knicks.
“They got a lot of open three-pointers against the Knicks,” said Nelson. “Jalen Brunson and Karl Anthony-Towns are not good defenders at all. It opens a lot of opportunities when you can drive by them, and get help. That means the three-point line is open. That’s not going to happen against OKC. They all can defend.”
Nelson noted that as difficult as it was covering Brunson, who is six-feet tall, the seven extra inches in SGA’s frame make him even tougher.
“How do they address SGA, with (Pascal) Siakam?,” said Nelson. “It’s going to be tough, a big mismatch for whomever covers him.”
While the Pacers do go deep in their scoring, with seven players averaging 10-plus points per game, the bench players after after Tyrese Haliburton, Siakam and Miles Turner aren’t on a plane with OKC’s super-subs when it comes to defense.
“The Thunder have committed to defense, especially this year,” said Nelson. “You saw that especially against Minnesota. There were times they couldn’t score. And the only way to beat OKC is keep up with their offense and score.”
The bottom line for the Pacers’ success, believes Nelson, will come down to 3-point shots.
“If they shoot 40 percent or better in a game, they have a chance,” said Nelson. “In their clinching game against the Knicks they made 17 of 33 three-pointers. And they won handily. The problem is OKC has the players to defend the three-point line.”
Pacers’ backup point guard, T.J. McConnell was a big assist weapon against the Knicks. He expects one on one coverage on McConnell, nullifying his best attribute, which is driving and dishing to his teammates at the 3-point arc.
“They don’t care if McConnell scores 30 in a game,” said Nelson. “That’s not going to beat OKC. They need to get off a bunch of threes and hit a high percentage.”
While Nelson believes OKC will win this series relatively easily, in five games at most, there is a wild card on the Pacers side – head coach Rick Carlisle.
“That’s the Pacers biggest advantage, the head coach,” said Nelson. “He’s been to the NBA Finals six times as coach and player. He is smart enough to keep most of the games close.”
Carlisle’s innovative, moving offense is not easy to defend.
“To me, he’s one of top head coaches in the league,” said Nelson. “He watches a lot of film. The way the Pacers attacked Brunson and Towns was elite. Maybe they attack SGA with Halburton, trying to get some early foul trouble. I know he will try to get Holmgren away from the rim, where’s he tough.”
Nelson said the fact that OKC has had its foot on the pedal from the first week of the season and never let up is a testament to what the organization has built.
“This is their year, just like last year was the Celtics’ year,” said Nelson. “The Pacers are new to this. They have played great in the playoffs and won some clutch games. But this is going to be different. OKC is simply too good.”
You can follow Bill Burt on X @burttalkssports. You can email him at bburt@eagletribune.com.