Democrats are hoping to flip New York’s 21st Congressional District out of Republican hands this year, and the party’s national Congressional campaign arm has put the district on its list of targeted races.
On Wednesday, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee put NY-21 on their ‘Districts in Play’ list, a group of Congressional districts in 26 states that the party thinks are close to flipping either into Democratic hands or to Republicans.
NY-21, covering most of the north country, the Mohawk Valley and part of the Capital Region has been solidly Republican for over a decade, represented by outgoing Congresswoman Elise M. Stefanik, R-Schuylerville. Against Stefanik, Democrats never identified the district as winnable and didn’t seek to boost their candidates in the district to the national stage.
But with Stefanik leaving office, Democrats are banking on what they say is an unconventional Republican candidate in Anthonty T. Constantino, the unpopularity of President Donald J. Trump and the strengths of their own candidate Blake Gendebien.
“Anthony Constantino is a self-dealer who cares more about lining his own pockets than fighting for hardworking families,” said DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene. “When Constantino isn’t using his campaign to bankroll advertisements for his own business, he’s pledging total loyalty to the GOP plan on reckless tariffs that jack up costs on north country families and healthcare cuts that put rural hospitals at risk. The DCCC will spend the coming months making sure that come November, New York’s 21st Congressional District elects a representative that finally puts them first.”
The race for NY-21 has been expensive already; Constantino has spent over $9 million and Gendebien over $6 million, with the caveat that some of that money was spent in 2025 to campaign for an anticipated special election that didn’t occur.
This attention from the DCCC, which will help direct donor money to Gendebien’s campaign, is likely to drive those spending numbers even higher. But Gendebien was not put on a second list maintained by the DCCC, the 2026 Red to Blue list, that comes with direct donations from the DCCC and a more prominent promotion of the campaign to voters nationwide.
In a statement, Gendebien said the support of the DCCC is another sign that his campaign is successful.
“We’ve spent this campaign talking with farmers, veterans, small business owners, and working families about the cost of groceries, the cost of health care, and that Washington isn’t actually looking out for them. My opponent has spent his time throwing mud instead of putting forward a single plan of his own,” he said. “Voters see the difference. They care more about results than partisan politics, and that’s why this race has closed to one point.”
Gendebien’s campaign manager Michael Waller said that Constantino has proven himself to be wrong for the district and unsuited for a job in Congress throughout this campaign.
“He’s had every opportunity to put forward a real plan for north country families and instead has offered insults and distractions,“ Waller said. ”Voters here want someone who’s here to represent this district, not perform for it. They want someone who shows up, listens, and delivers, and that’s exactly the campaign Blake’s run.”
For his part, Constantino is still declining to accept donations. He recently returned a total of $7,000 from House GOP Whip Thomas Emmer, and although he does have a WinRed online fundraising page active, he appears not to be taking donations from it.
Gendebien’s campaign recently commissioned an internal poll showing him within a point of Constantino among voters in the district, although political experts caution that internal polls are not typically very reliable.
Democrats have floated flipping this seat since late 2024 when the recently reelected Stefanik was tapped by the Trump administration to be the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations and sit on his Cabinet. An early selection process among the Democratic party leaders in the district elevated Gendebien as their candidate, while the Republican’s local leadership squabbled over a much wider field of candidates.
Constantino, then best known for his sticker printing company in Amsterdam, Montgomery County, his installation of a ‘Vote For Trump’ sign atop an abandoned factory on the Sticker Mule campus and subsequent battle with city officials over zoning and permitting issues, jumped into the race alongside state lawmakers, former candidates for other districts and a T.V. news anchor turned politician.
He put more than $2 million of his own money — money he said he earned by buying Tesla stock as owner Elon Musk bought the social media platform Twitter — into a campaign that chafed the local leadership. At one point he threatened an independent campaign for the seat if not picked as the Republican nominee.
But when Stefanik’s nomination for U.N. Ambassador was rescinded over fears that Democrats could lose her seat, Gendebien and Constantino entered something of a holding pattern to watch for the seat. Stefanik announced a bid for Governor midway through 2025, reopening the seat. Constantino rejoined the campaign while Gendebien never really left, and the two faced primary challengers they both handily defeated.
Now with over $12 million of Constantino’s own money committed to his campaign, with Gendebien having raised over $6 million himself, the two are headed towards what’s been projected to be an extremely expensive general election.
In a statement shared with the Times late Wednesday afternoon, the National Republican Congressional Committee said they’re not concerned by the targeting of the race by Democrats and see Gendebien as unable to win in the district.
“Blake Gendebien is running for Congress to peddle Democrats’ radical agenda that raises taxes, makes communities less safe and hurts north country farmers,” said Maureen O’Toole, spokeswoman for the NRCC. “That’s not a winning agenda, and he’ll be sorely rejected in November.”
Voting for the general election will technically start on Sept. 18 in New York; that’s when local Boards of Election can send out early voting ballots and absentee ballots by mail. Mail votes can be sent back up to election day, Nov. 3, but USPS postmarking changes mean voters should aim to get their ballot in the mail by Oct. 30. Ballots have until Nov. 10 to get to the Board of Elections office by mail to be counted.
Early in-person voting at a limited number of polling sites with limited hours will open Oct. 24 to Nov. 1, before all regular poll sites open across the state from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. on Nov. 3.