The NASCAR Cup Series is heading to Atlanta, which is a completely different track now that it’s been repaved to resemble that of a superspeedway.
The change led to much more pack racing resulting in tight finishes similar to Daytona and Talladega, but it makes it much tougher to predict from a betting perspective since superspeedways tend to produce unexpected race winners.
The positive though is that there’s value to be had with so few chalk favorites, and I’ve picked five drivers that I feel offer value from a betting perspective to reach victory lane.
FAST FIVE PICKS
Chalk play: Ross Chastain (+1100 to win)
Chastain ran up front consistently in both Atlanta races last season and has been knocking at the door of victory all season. He’s beginning to develop a reputation as someone who runs up front but can’t seal the win, but this week is the perfect chance for Chastain to break through, and he’ll have extra motivation after last week’s incident with Denny Hamlin.
Best value: Denny Hamlin (+1200 to win)
Speaking of Hamlin, he was slapped with a hefty penalty after admitting to internationally wrecking Chastain last week, so it’s clear that frustration is boiling over. However, Hamlin’s among the best in the business at pack racing, so the new style of racing at Atlanta makes this a perfect get-right spot for the veteran as he looks to get his season back on track.
Trending up: Chris Buescher (+2000 to win)
RFK Racing has been among the most impressive teams in the Cup Series and by far the most improved from last season, and Buescher has been a huge key to that turnaround. The RFK cars were among the fastest at Daytona, and they project to run up front again at this “baby superspeedway,” so Buescher offers serious value at 20-to-1.
Mid-pack play: Austin Dillon (+3000 to win)
Speaking of teams that run well at superspeedways, Richard Childress Racing has been fast enough to where Dillon is usually always in the mix late in these races. RCR will be motivated after nearly winning the Daytona 500, and while Kyle Busch was the one in a position to win it, Dillon could be the one this time around and offers value at 30-to-1.
Longshot play: Justin Haley (+6000 to win)
The huge story from this week was the number of penalties NASCAR handed down, but Haley’s 100-point penalty slipped through the cracks since Hamlin and the Hendrick Motorsports drivers were also hit hard. It’s safe to say Haley will need to win a race in order to have any shot at the playoffs, and this could be an opportunity for him considering he scored a top-10 finish at Atlanta last year.
AMBETTER HEALTH 400 FULL FIELD ODDS
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook.
+900 to win
William Byron (+275 top three finish, +105 top five, -148 top 10)
+1000 to win
Kyle Busch (+300 top three, +135 top five, -160 top 10)
Kyle Larson (+300 top three, +135 top five, -160 top 10)
+1100 to win
Ross Chastain (+300 top three, +160 top five, -250 top 10)
Joey Logano (+300 top three, +160 top five, -250 top 10)
+1200 to win
Christopher Bell (+350 top three, +200 top five, -140 top 10)
Denny Hamlin (+350 top three, +200 top five, -140 top 10)
Ryan Blaney (+350 top three, +200 top five, -140 top 10)
+1700 to win
Brad Keselowski (+600 top three, +325 top five, -120 top 10)
+1800 to win
Alex Bowman (+500 top three, +250 top five, -130 top 10)
+2000 to win
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+600 top three, +325 top five, -120 top 10)
Bubba Wallace (+600 top three, +325 top five, -120 top 10)
Kevin Harvick (+600 top three, +325 top five, -120 top 10)
Chris Buescher (+750 top three, +375 top five, +110 top 10)
+2200 to win
Martin Truex Jr. (+600 top three, +300 top five, -120 top 10)
Daniel Suarez (+600 top three, +300 top five, -120 top 10)
+2500 to win
Tyler Reddick (+750 top three, +375 top five, +110 top 10)
+2800 to win
Chase Briscoe (+750 top three, +320 top five, +100 top 10)
Austin Cindric (+750 top three, +320 top five, +100 top 10)
+3000 to win
Aric Almirola (+750 top three, +400 top five, +120 top 10)
Austin Dillon (+1000 top three, +525 top five, +120 top 10)
+3500 to win
Josh Berry (+1000 top three, +400 top five, +120 top 10)
Erik Jones (+750 top three, +350 top five, +110 top 10)
+5000 to win
Corey LaJoie (+1200 top three, +575 top five, +200 top 10)
Ryan Preece (+1400 top three, +675 top five, +200 top 10)
Todd Gilliland (+1400 top three, +675 top five, +200 top 10)
Michael McDowell (+1400 top three, +675 top five, +200 top 10)
Noah Gragson (+1400 top three, +675 top five, +200 top 10)
A.J. Allmendinger (+1400 top three, +675 top five, +200 top 10)
+6000 to win
Justin Haley (+1400 top three, +650 top five, +175 top 10)
Ty Gibbs (+1600 top three, +750 top five, +175 top 10)
+7500 to win
Harrison Burton (+1600 top three, +750 top five, +230 top 10)
+25000 to win
Ty Dillon (+5000 top three, +2800 top five, +700 top 10)
+100000 to win
J.J. Yeley (+20000 top three, +3500 top five, +2000 top 10)
Cody Ware (+20000 top three, +3500 top five, +2000 top 10)
B.J. McLeod (+20000 top three, +3500 top five, +2000 top 10)