Merril Hoge is the last guy to be a party pooper for NFL draftees from Thursday to Saturday.
He was a 10th round pick out of Idaho State University, going to the Pittsburgh Steelers, and said that day was one of the happiest of his young life.
But since the great day, things have changed. He played eight years in the NFL and worked in the media for 21 years breaking down the NFL before ESPN laid him off among cuts in 2017.
One of his specialties was the NFL Draft.
While he gets calls to break down talent — he still breaks down college film — he will not be around the next three days when ESPN and the NFL Network run their highly profitable draft coverage.
He’s not a willing participant in the entertainment portion of the NFL’s three-day, $500M showcase event.
Which, if we’re being honest, is the name of the game for every second of the big-time NFL event, including days and weeks before.
Other than one entertaining draft day blowup 30 years ago when a draft nerd named Mel Kiper blasted the Indianapolis Colts pick of Trev Alberts, a linebacker out of Notre Dame, with the fifth overall pick on the ESPN broadcast in 1994, the draft is about roses and candy.
Kiper, who had been helping ESPN with the draft since he was 23 in 1984, said the Colts should’ve taken Trent Dilfer because they only had Jim Harbaugh.
“That’s why the Colts are picking second in the draft every year,” said Kiper.
To which Tobin said, “Who in the hell is Mel Kiper.”
It was great TV, probably growing the NFL Draft’s exposure.
Beyond the entertaining back-and-forth both Tobin and Kiper were wrong, as both players were part of that draft’s most disappointing positions, quarterback and linebacker.
Since that duel, it’s become, arguably, the most exciting few days of the year on the docket for the sport with the buildup of magazines, prediction shows, mock drafts, parties, green room and excitement.
It’s the one day every team wins. Or, at least, if feels like a “W.”
Which brings us to the NFL Draft’s version of Debbie Downer.
But Hoge looks at this event, particularly the first round, a little bit differently, especially when it comes to quarterbacks.
He calls it like he sees it. And leading up to the draft, a few players and their families aren’t going to like what they hear.
In fact, leading into most drafts he usually has something controversial – i.e. negative – to say about some college prospect.
And that truth serum is not welcomed. On these three days the NFL wants and gets unfettered positivity.
One of Hoge’s biggest and first draft calls was on quarterback Johnny Manziel in 2014.
On an ESPN show with Skip Bayless, Hoge said Manziel was, at best, a late round pick, drawing amazement from Bayless who believed the Houston Texans, drafting first overall, should take the hometown boy – Manziel attended Texas A&M – and would regret it for years if they didn’t.
“He’s a fifth or six round grade,” said Hoge. “If you have a compensatory pick, grab him there. But not in the first round.
“There’s a project just thrown at you. There are so many major flaws,” said Hoge. “People who will take him first round … If you take him first overall, that staff will be gone in two years.”
Ironically, Hoge made headlines in that same draft on the eventual overall first pick by the Texans, Jadeveon Clowney, saying despite being a great athlete he was not was not a very good football player, lacking in fundamentals.
Hoge said he’d take University of Buffalo linebacker Khalil Mack, drafted fifth overall, well before Clowney.
Mack is a future Hall of Famer with eight Pro Bowls, five All-Pro teams and Defensive Player of the Year on his resume and Clowney has turned into an underachieving journeyman with three Pro Bowls.
Bingo again.
Which brings us to the quarterback position and New England
The Patriots are selecting third overall in the first round later this month and, according to the “experts,” there are four or five possible quarterback options in the first round.
And, of course, the Patriots have a need at the position with journeyman Jacoby Brissett holding down the fort for probably one year, at most.
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Merril Hoge has opinions on college quarterbacks. Lots of them. For several years now.
This, despite being a running-turned full-back for eight NFL seasons, a former 10th round pick by the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Why does he seem to focus on college quarterbacks entering the NFL Draft?
Well, because he has always looked at the game differently, because he lacked some of the physical “star” attributes, having to think the game through to survive.
He didn’t miss a game in six years, averaging 677 yards and 5 TDs over four of those years … as a fullback. In other words, he was no slouch.
Hoge is not saying this is an exact science, because there are extraneous future issues – coaching, team surrounding QB, etc. – in the NFL, but there is one thing he can hang his hat when it comes to breaking down future quarterbacks in the NFL:
Film.
“It doesn’t lie,” said Hoge. “You can talk about the other things in a college career: the wins, the awards; the athleticism; the arm … whatever.”
First off, Hoge says comparing college and the NFL game is literally apples to oranges, especially at the quarterback position.
Most games, if not all games for some, said Hoge, the highly rated quarterback’s team is better at nearly every position in nearly every game.
“That doesn’t happen in the NFL,” said Hoge. “You have some great SEC teams, like LSU, Alabama and Georgia, which probably have an advantage at several positions over the team their facing. That’s not the case in NFL. It’s basically even, all over the field. Everybody is good or great. So the quarterback is going to have to turn an ‘even matchup’ into an advantage, if he’s a really good one.”
Hoge said drafting a quarterback in the first round, especially early in the round, is a big risk.
If he doesn’t pan out, failing to become a top 15 guy, then a lot of people are going to be fired.
Almost every year this is an issue that gets swept under the rug and quarterbacks get chosen in bunches in the first round, with most failing badly.
Hoge thinks it’s interesting that from the bowl games to the draft, it always seems a quarterback or two … or even three magically get added to the first round after the NFL Combine and/or Pro Days.
Last year, the experts had two “franchise QB” possibilities in former Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud.
Hoge took another tough, outside-the-box stance before last year’s draft, saying Stroud was the best quarterback and Young had some good qualities but wasn’t worthy of a first round pick.
Not only that, he rated Stroud on a par with Joe Burrow, the last, true “franchise” quarterback he graded.
The Carolina Panthers apparently disagreed and chose Young first overall. Stroud was taken second overall by the Houston Texans.
“I saw Stroud as a potentially special guy, right there with Burrow,” recalled Hoge. “He not only is bring, agile with a good arm, but he is better than most in processing information fast. And he can make every throw on the field.
“I saw Bryce Young as potentially being pretty good, a good processor of information with a solid arm, but his size, at about 5-foot-10, scared me. I said it then, he’s probably going to get hurt a lot. And he got hurt last. He’s a tough kid, but you can’t coach up size.”
Stroud, as Hoge predicted, is moving the needle when it comes to winning. In fact, bookmakers have made him a co-favorite with Patrick Mahomes for 2024 MVP.
Hoge has some thoughts on all of the quarterbacks being considered (see Thursday story on Hoge’s thoughts about 2024 quarterback prospects). As a whole, he wouldn’t use the first few picks of the draft for any of them.
Which means don’t expect to see Hoge on NFL Network or ESPN the next few days.
“Are there guys that could improve in important areas, if they are coached properly? Sure,” said Hoge. “Let me put is this way, there isn’t a Burrow or Stroud in this draft. And in some cases, not even close.”
Ouch.
You can email Bill Burt at bburt@eagletribune.com.