BOSTON — Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ed Markey survived a primary challenge five years ago from a member of Massachusetts’ most storied political families, but observers say he faces an even more formidable threat from Rep. Seth Moulton as he seeks a third-term.
Moulton, a five-term congressman, announced on Wednesday that he is challenging Markey for the U.S. Senate seat in next year’s Democratic primary.
Moulton’s candidacy promises to set up a bruising Democratic primary that could hinge on questions of generational power in U.S. politics, which continue to loom over the national party after former President Joe Biden’s exit from the 2024 presidential race.
Markey’s age — he will 80 next year — is expected to be a key factor in the race.
In his campaign launch video, Moulton, 46, described Markey as a “good man” but said it’s “time for a new generation of leadership” in Washington.
“We’re in a crisis, and with everything we learned in the last election, I just don’t believe Senator Markey should be running for another six-year term at 80-years-old,” the Salem Democrat said in the video. “Even more, I don’t think someone who has been in Congress for half a century is the right person to meet this moment and win the future.”
Jeffrey Berry, a political science professor at Tufts University, said Moulton’s argument of generational change could be convincing to Massachusetts voters.
“I think Moulton has a decent chance,” Berry said. “He was smart to be explicit about age and put it front and center.”
The Democratic primary race will play out as increasing outrage among Democrats over Republican president Donald Trump’s divisive agenda galvanizes the party base to push for change in leadership, Berry said. That could bode well for Moulton.
“Democrats are angry and frustrated,” Berry said. “They want to do something, and this gives them an option of electing someone who promises to be more aggressive.”
Deflected a challenge
Markey deflected a Democratic primary challenge in the 2020 elections with a 10-point victory over Rep. Joe Kennedy III, becoming the first to defeat to a member of the state’s storied political family in a statewide campaign.
But Luis Jiménez, an assistant professor in politics at the University of Massachusetts Boston, said Moulton’s challenge will be different with the party focused on generational changes. He said Markey should be “very nervous” about a challenge from the younger congressman.
“Generally speaking, the Democratic Party is geriatric these days,” Jiménez said. “Age wasn’t really a factor when Markey faced Kennedy, but it is now, and not just because of Trump, but because of what has been happening with Democratic politics on a national level. As a whole, age is going to have much more traction this time around.”
Recent polling suggests the left-wing of the party wants it to stake out more progressive stances and aggressively push back against Trump’s policies, while moderates and Democratic-leaning independents argue that the party needs to focus on a centrist agenda to win back working-class voters that cost them the last election.
Markey, 79, of Malden, announced his plans to seek another term last year. He has been touting endorsements from Massachusetts Democrats, including lawmakers representing Moulton’s 6th Congressional District, which includes Salem, Gloucester and Rockport.
Re-elected five times
Moulton, 46, was first elected to Congress in 2014, after defeating John Tierney in the primary and then beating Republican Richard Tisei with 55% of the vote in the general election. The former Marine captain, who served four combat tours of duty in Iraq, has won reelection five times, sometimes without opposition.
He led unsuccessful efforts to change Democratic House leadership in both 2017 and 2019 and ran for president in 2020, but dropped out of the race before the primary. In the 2024 election, he cinched a fifth term.
A recent poll by the conservative Fiscal Alliance Foundation showed Moulton with a lead over Markey among likely Democratic voters in the state. The survey found 43% of voters favored Moulton compared to just 21% who favored Markey. Among Democrats, Moulton leads Markey 38% to 30%, pollsters found.
About 63% of respondents to the poll said Markey should not seek reelection next year, pollsters said.
UMass Lowell political scientist John Cluverius said it’s possible that Markey could decide to drop out of the race, and open up the primary to other top Massachusetts Democrats, including U.S. Rep. Ayanna Pressley, who has been rumored to be considering a run for the Senate seat. A crowded primary could hurt Moulton’s chances, he said.
“Moulton has the primary advantage now by declaring his candidacy first,” Cluverius said. “But there are a lot of potential candidates without Markey in the race.”
Name recognition a factor
Another fact that that could complicate the congressman’s insurgent primary challenge is name recognition in the statewide race, he said.
“While Moulton is fairly popular on the North Shore, he’s not as well known statewide,” Cluverius said. “The advantage that Joe Kennedy had in 2020 was not only his name, but he was very well-connected in other parts of the state beyond his district.”
Markey is showing no signs, however, of bowing out of the race. In a fundraising pitch Thursday, he said he has seen a surge in support since a “well-funded opponent officially jumped into the race” and urged more people to join his “movement” to “stand up for progressive values and fight for the working class.”
“Now that this race is underway, it’s absolutely crucial that we report a massive number of donations at the end of this FEC reporting period,” Markey said. “It will send a clear message to our opponent, to the media, and to the entire establishment that our campaign is stronger than ever and ready to win.”