More than 36 million Latinos are now eligible to vote in the United States — the nation’s fastest-growing electorate — and political analysts say they will play a major role in the upcoming midterm elections with control of Congress hinging on razor-thin margins.
In 2024, Republican Donald Trump won 48% of the Latino vote nationally — up 12 points from the 2020 presidential election — helping him win a second term in the White House. Trump also made deep inroads in regions of the country with some of this year’s most hotly contested House and Senate races, like Texas and Florida.
But there are signs that support is fracturing ahead of the midterms, when control of Congress will be up for grabs ahead of Trump’s final two years in office.
Recent polls have shown a majority of Latinos disapprove of the Trump administration’s handling of the cost-of-living issues and immigration enforcement. One in four Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024 would not vote for him again, UnidosUS found in a recent poll.
While Trump isn’t on the ballot this November, midterm elections are often a referendum on the party occupying the White House. Political observers say a dramatic swing in Latino voters against the president could tip the balance in Congress away from Republicans, who currently hold a majority in the House and Senate.
Bucknell University Political Science Professor Derek Wakefield said Latino voters are expected to be the most critical swing voting bloc in November’s midterms, with lingering inflation, jobs and other pocketbook issues on their minds as they cast their ballots.
“When Latinos believe inflation is rising, they punish whoever sits in the White House, and they do it about two and a half times more frequently than white voters do,” he said in an interview. “They are more responsive to economic conditions than any other major group of American voters.”
Wakefield, who has studied Latino voting trends over the past decade, said shifts in voting among the Latino population are driven more by voters’ perceptions of the economy than immigration or identity politics.
“If the historical pattern holds, the Latino share of the vote will swing harder than any other group, in the direction that the price of eggs and rent now point,” he said.
Congressional impact
The impact of Latino voters is already playing out in many congressional races across the country, including Texas, where Trump won the key voting bloc in 2024. Recent polling and primary results have left Democrats optimistic they could win a statewide election for the first time in more than three decades.
In a key U.S. Senate race, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who ousted four-term incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn to win the party’s nomination, is battling for the Latino vote against state Rep. James Talarico, D-Austin. The latest polls show Talarico with sizable leads among Latino voters and Black voters.
Latino voters could also help decide the outcome of Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District race, where Democrat Bob Brooks and Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie are vying to win the support of the growing voting bloc in a district where 22% of the population is either Latino or Hispanic.
Not surprisingly, Democrats and Republicans are clamoring for the Latino vote ahead of the midterm elections — and looking ahead to the 2028 presidential election.
Democrats see a sluggish economy and high inflation coupled with disapproval of the president’s tariffs and aggressive immigration enforcement as a clear opening in Latino-heavy battlegrounds.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee launched an eight-figure ad blitz last year targeting Latino and rural voters. The television and digital ads fault Republicans for Trump’s tariffs, cuts to food assistance programs and high gas prices.
Meanwhile, Democratic-aligned super PACs are also ramping up their efforts to reach Latino voters.
But Republicans and super PACs backing their candidates are working to defend gains they made with Latino voters in the 2024 elections. In political messaging to Latino voters, GOP candidates have highlighted Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” which cut taxes on tips and expanded childcare tax credits.
LIBRE Action, a conservative group aligned with the Koch network, is campaigning for Republican Senate candidates in several states, including Ohio, where it has endorsed Republican U.S. Sen. Jon Husted in a challenge from Democratic challenger and former Sen. Sherrod Brown.
The group is also focusing on North Carolina, where it is backing former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley in a wide-open U.S. Senate race against former North Carolina Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.
Both races could help determine whether Republicans hold onto their majority in the U.S. Senate in the midterms.
In July, a coalition of nonpartisan Latino organizations formed the 2026 Latino Civic Engagement Coalition with the goal of reaching a voting group that has shifted dramatically in recent years.
The coalition — which includes UnidosUS, the LULAC Institute, Mi Familia en Acción and Latino Victory Foundation — plans to focus on key battleground states including Arizona, Pennsylvania, Texas, Florida and Ohio, which feature some of the most competitive House and Senate races in the election cycle.
It also wants to register 250,000 new Latino voters and boost their turnout by at least 5% in the 2028 election.
“Latinos are reshaping the future of America, yet too many eligible Latino voters continue to face barriers that keep them from fully participating in our democracy,” said Hector Sanchez Barba, President and CEO of Mi Familia en Acción. “We cannot accept a system where millions of voices are left unheard.”
Juan Proaño, CEO of the LULAC Institute, said despite that they are the largest growing electorate in the U.S., Latinos “are still the last to be contacted and the first to be taken for granted.” He said the new coalition will help improve civic engagement and ensure that Latino “voices are heard” in U.S. politics.
“There is no American democracy without the Latino vote,” he said. “Our participation is not a courtesy to be sought every other November; it is the foundation on which representative government stands.”
Christian M. Wade covers Massachusetts politics and government for CNHI’s North of Boston Media Group. He can be reached at cwade@cnhinews.com.