ORCHARD PARK — Josh Allen leaped in the air immediately after the ball left his fingertips. He knew what was coming and it was a horrible mistake.
Indianapolis Colts cornerback Kenny Moore II stepped in front of a pass to Curtis Samuel and the only thing saving the Buffalo Bills from a pick-six — something that hasn’t happened since 2019 — was Moore losing his footing along the sideline. It was Allen’s second interception of the day and fourth in three games.
Allen had a historic start to the season, going seven games without an interception, but that was the high point of the passing game. He surpassed 200 yards twice in the first five games, capped by a dismal 9-for-30 performance against the Houston Texans in Week 5.
But despite his interceptions and injuries to receivers Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper and tight end Dalton Kincaid, Allen’s production has increased the past five games. He’s averaging nearly 80 yards more per game, his completion percentage is up six points and his nine touchdown passes are one more than the first five outings.
Although Allen isn’t ready to pat himself on the back, the fluidity of the passing game looks more like the one he operated over the previous four seasons.
“We’re trying to focus more on the process and the results,” Allen said. “There’s things that we’re doing each and every week — trying to improve — whether it’s how I’m throwing the ball mechanically, where I’m putting the ball for receivers, watching as much film as possible so I can have really good communication and conversations with (offensive coordinator Joe Brady) and (quarterbacks coach Ronald Curry), and just try to make sure that our offense is running at a high level.”
Allen’s low numbers early in the season were frequently attributed to lack of talent at wide receiver, which led to the Bills dealing a third-round pick to the Cleveland Browns for Cooper on Oct. 15. But while Cooper opened other receivers in his first two games with the team, other receivers have increased their play in his absence.
Over the first five games, Bills receivers averaged 98.6 yards per game, with a receiver topping 50 yards four times. But in the last five contests, receivers are posting 170.6 yards per game and there have been eight 50-yard games during that span.
A healthy Khalil Shakir has been a major reason for the increase in numbers, averaging 74.5 yards per game over the last four games, a product of regaining his health after suffering an ankle sprain that caused him to miss a game and labor through two more.
“Guys are going in and out and getting chemistry and trying to get a feel of kind of who’s out there and what routes they’re doing,” Brady said. “But (Allen) hasn’t blinked and has gone out there, and has played within the system, and we have to continue doing that.”
Brady also has to continue being a more consistent play-caller, something he’s done during Buffalo’s five-game winning streak. In the first five games, Brady called a run play on first down 65.5% of the time, and while it’s still a relatively high number compared to when Brian Daboll and Ken Dorsey called passes on more than 50% of first downs, the number has dropped to 58% in the last five weeks.
Additionally, Brady has also done a better job of getting Allen into a rhythm early in the game. In the five games Brady has called a pass on Buffalo’s first offensive play, Allen has completed 65.8% of his passes, but that number drops five points in the games the Bills run on the first play.
Against the Seahawks, Allen hit tight end Dawson Knox on a 23-yard gain on the first offensive play and went on to complete his first six passes. When Allen threw his first interception against the Colts, he was 6 of 11, including a 17-yard toss to Curtis Samuel to open the game.
Because Allen had found some sort of rhythm, he didn’t panic when the Bills saw their 10-point lead wither away nor when he threw his second interception. Allen led scoring drives on the next possession after both turnovers against the Colts.
By contrast, Allen threw back-to-back completions on Buffalo’s first drive against the Texans, never got into a groove and started pressing, a weakness for Allen over the years. He went 6 of 18 in the first half of that game, and even though he has a habit of getting hot in second halves, he went just 3 of 12 after halftime.
“You always want to be able to get in a rhythm, you want to see the ball go in the hoop,” Brady said. “… Just getting that first catch, that first run, that first hit, that first completion out of the way is always critical, whether it’s the first play or throughout the drive, I think it’s always important. You don’t want to come off the field or come out of the first drive feeling like, ‘Man, I haven’t got a completion and I’ve got hit a couple times.’”
When Allen does find his hot spot, he plays with a swagger that’s hard to stop and pressure doesn’t faze him. Despite consistently being one of the top quarterbacks in the league against the blitz, teams have tested him at a high rate this season.
The Baltimore Ravens had success blitzing Allen, doing so 10 times and pressuring him 11 as receivers struggled to beat man-to-man coverage. But that game proved to be unique, as Allen’s 113 dropbacks against five or more rushers ranks eighth in the NFL, but he has a league-best 11 touchdowns and just one interception.
Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is likely to try blitzing Allen also, because that’s what his defenses do well. The Chiefs are third in blitz percentage (34.5), but it rarely worked against Allen during their matchups.
In seven career games against the Chiefs, Allen has been blitzed 116 times and has been sacked 10 times. But Allen has also thrown for 571 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions against the blitz, according to Pro Football Focus.
“You call certain plays sometimes to try to entice them to bring something,” Allen said. “… Just trusting in what we’re seeing, trusting in our base rules. When you play a team that does so many different things and they do it well, you have to kind of rely on what you did in training camp and trusting your base rules.”