It’s that time of year again, when the “numbers” from a lot of work by wildlife biologists and technicians become available to the public to give us an idea of what kind of bird populations we can expect this fall.
Many things are weather-dependent, of course — not just with how it affected the reproduction and recruitment of bird populations this past spring and summer, but also in what we experience when we step outdoors.
If we’re told there are a gajillion — a technical term — ducks around but our days to hunt are 90-degrees and no wind, we might not see anything over our spreads. So when the weather is right for what you choose to chase, it’s best to be out there.
To come up with these numbers, biologists and technicians track a number of factors that include actual bird observances (harvest data, breeding counts such as grouse drumming or pheasants crowing, aerial surveys, brood observations); weather measurements (snowfall, rainfall, drought, and at what specific time of the year); and habitat conditions (nesting, brood-rearing, and how weather has affected it). Using historical data and comparisons, they can extrapolate out to what we should likely find this hunting season.
To read more in-depth information, visit the DNR website: www.michigan.gov/dnr/things-to-do/hunting. In addition to season dates and regulations, you’ll find maps and databases of public land open to hunting. If you plan to travel to a different state, all that forecast information can be found on that state’s wildlife agency website as well.
Across the Lake States of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, ruffed grouse were found in abundance last year, and although drumming counts were lower this year, it’s still expected to be a fine season.
Wisconsin saw their third highest spring drumming survey in the last 25 years; but it’s tempered somewhat because of a wet spring, which can impact brood survival.
And Minnesota remains strong, too; last year saw its highest drumming count since 1972, and this spring was down slightly. Recruitment of the young into the adult population come fall can still be impacted by the spring and summer weather, though, and, like Wisconsin, there were some significant rain events.
Whether that hit during critical periods will be borne out by what hunters find this year.
Here at home in Michigan, Dave Smith, writing for The Pointing Dog Journal recently, says that “preliminary analysis of the drumming survey data shows a slight decline this year,” as reported to him by Adam Bump, Michigan DNR. He doesn’t anticipate this to be overly noticeable for hunters and expects hunting experiences to be similar to last year. Bump notes that the northern Lower Peninsula was hit by a catastrophic ice storm this year and thousands of acres of forests were damaged and many forest roads are likely to still be blocked in the fall. Hunters should expect some access issues and there may be large amounts of downed trees which might impact the ability to hunt certain areas.”
Michigan had the highest harvest (in 2023-2024) of woodcock among the primary states where this favorite and quirky upland bird is found, and the singing ground survey in the Central Region (where Michigan is located) appeared stable.
Anecdotal hunter reports from last season, however, revealed hunters having a hard time finding birds; the “art” portion of trying to predict and anticipate fall numbers has Bump feeling optimistic this fall of hunters seeing more birds, according to Smith’s article.
If you have time to explore, locate some of Michigan’s premier GEMS (Grouse Enhanced Management Sites) across the state.
More information can be found on the “Where to Hunt” section of the DNR website.
Moving from the uplands to the wetlands, we find the annual waterfowl breeding survey, completed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in coordination with the Canadian Wildlife Service and other partners.
Doug Larsen, writing for The Retriever Journal, quoted Yogi Berra in saying, “It’s déjà vu all over again.” The estimated fall flight of ducks revealed 34 million birds expected, same as last fall.
As noted last year in this space, this survey only measures 10 species in the predominantly Prairie Pothole Region of the country across the Dakotas, Great Plains, and prairie Canada.
Michigan lies on the outskirts of that region in the Mississippi Flyway, but when overall duck numbers are up — and with the right wind — we can get some of those birds moving into our area.
Some notable duck species include mallards (down one percent to 6.554 million); pintails (up 13 percent to 2.239 million); gadwalls (up six percent to 2.41 million); wigeon (up nine percent to 3.19 million); redheads (up 17 percent to almost a million birds); and canvasbacks (up 22 percent to 690,000). Blue-winged teal (down four percent to 4.432 million); green-winged teal (down 15 percent to 2.55 million); and scaup (down 10 percent to 3.675 million) are the species that experienced the largest declines.
While Michigan falls outside of this traditional survey area, the USFWS does include information from other states that do their own breeding survey. According to the report, “In Michigan, the total duck estimate was 79% below the 2024 estimate and 76% below the long-term average (1991–2024).”
There has been anecdotal evidence cited in several reports that delays in the spring data collection by biologists and pilots may have contributed to lower number of observances due to decreased visibility.
It’s a similar trend regarding mallards, specifically, in Michigan.
Mallards are the primary species duck hunters across the country are most interested in, and the USFWS report states, “In Michigan, the 2025 mallard estimate was 65% below the 2024 estimate and 72% below the long-term average (1991–2024).” The report further states that habitat conditions were generally good, with Great Lakes water levels below the long-term average.
As with anything, it doesn’t matter what the numbers say — we’ll still go, if for no other reason than to run the dog, get some fresh air, and relive past memories of fine days afield.
Have a safe season!
If you’re traveling … Ring-necked pheasants are probably on your radar if you’re heading west. South Dakota is always a good bet and still the king for ringnecks, but they have cut back on their pheasant surveys, so there’s not much to go on to anticipate. Iowa could be a great bet this year with some of their highest pheasant harvest numbers in recent years. Winter and spring weather were favorable enough to lead biologists to predict a solid nesting effort leading to a good hunting season. North Dakota, Nebraska, and Minnesota are also looking at promising pheasant seasons; Kansas, however, had some late rains that could have hampered nest and brood success. Take a look at the reports on all of those state agency websites for more information. {related_content_uuid}79012839-9081-404a-95fb-3666b5ad5f37{/related_content_uuid}