The Buffalo Bills need to trim their roster to 53 players by 4 p.m. Tuesday.
Thirty-eight players won’t make the active roster. Another 16 have a chance to make the practice squad, which means 22 have to think about what comes after football while the rest begin preparations for Buffalo’s visit from the Baltimore Ravens Sept. 7.
Teams as successful as the Bills have been over the last five years don’t have many cut-down day mysteries. But there is more intrigue over the final few roster spots than there has been in years, compounded by injuries and suspensions.
Players let go are either released and hit the open market immediately or go on waivers, with teams allowed to claim on their current contract. Players placed on waivers have fewer than four accrued NFL seasons.
Let’s take one last crack at predicting the final 53.
Quarterback (2): Josh Allen, Mitchell Trubisky.
Released: Mike White.
Waived: Shane Buechele.
Analysis: The Bills gave White a legitimate opportunity to beat Trubisky for the backup spot. But it was clear that Trubisky was the better player during training camp and preseason games. Buechele is unlikely to jump elsewhere on the practice squad, bolstered by the fact that he’s Allen’s right-hand man.
Running back (4): James Cook, Ray Davis, Reggie Gilliam (FB), Ty Johnson.
Waived: Frank Gore Jr., Elijah Young.
Analysis: Gore had a nice showing during the preseason, but not enough to push for a main roster spot. Running backs come in droves, so there’s a good chance Gore will clear waivers and sign to the practice squad.
Wide receiver (6): Keon Coleman, Elijah Moore, Joshua Palmer, Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, Tyrell Shavers.
Released: K.J. Hamler, Laviska Shenault Jr.
Waived: Deon Cain, Grant DuBose, Stephen Gosnell, Kristian Wilkerson.
Analysis: Shavers earned a roster spot and his special teams capabilities will earn him a jersey on game days. Moore is in a position where he would be Samuel for a jersey on game day because he doesn’t offer special teams help in coverage or returns.
There is a world where Moore moves up on the depth chart if the Bills find a trade partner for Samuel, who spent the entire preseason battling a hamstring injury and then missed the preseason finale with an illness, to get some salary cap relief.
Tight end (3): Jackson Hawes, Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox.
Waived: Zach Davidson, Keleki, Latu, Matt Sokol.
Analysis: The top-three were never in question. Davidson had chances to make an impression early in camp, but his blocking remains a weakness in his game. He’s liked within the locker room and is valuable as a practice squad call-up in a pinch.
An undrafted free agent, Latu had a long way to climb on the depth chart from the start. But the 6-foot-7 rookie showed promise and could be a project on the practice squad who could contend for a main roster spot in the future.
Offensive line (9): Alec Anderson, Spencer Brown, Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Tylan Grable, Kendrick Green, Chase Lundt, Connor McGovern, O’Cyrus Torrence.
PUP: Sedrick Van Pran-Granger.
Released: Dan Feeney.
Traded: Ryan Van Demark to Seattle Seahawks for a sixth-round pick.
Waived: Jacob Bayer, Travis Clayton, Mike Edwards, Richard Gouraige, Rush Reimer.
Analysis: Grable’s status might be the key here. He’s yet to play in a preseason game due to a concussion. If he’s ready to play right away, Van Demark appeared to have jumped Grable before his injury, but saw extensive playing time in the final two preseason games.
If the Bills feel Grable can return from his concussion Week 1, they could flip Van Demark for a late-round pick in typical Brandon Beane fashion. There is a deep market for reserve offensive linemen around the league, with the Seahawks being atop the list.
Defensive end (5): Joey Bosa, A.J. Epenesa, Landon Jackson, Greg Rousseau, Javon Solomon.
Suspended: Michael Hoecht.
Waived: Nelson Ceaser, Paris Shand.
Analysis: There are no surprises here. The real question is if all six are healthy when Hoecht completes his six-game suspension, will they keep all of them?
In the meantime, the fourth defensive end spot is one to watch. Jackson didn’t have a strong showing during his first preseason, but Solomon hasn’t appeared to jump him on the depth chart, playing late into the preseason finale. Jackson also offers more of a three-down presence.
Defensive tackle (5): DeWayne Carter, DaQuan Jones, Ed Oliver, T.J. Sanders, Deone Walker.
Released: Jordan Phillips.
Suspended: Larry Ogunjobi.
Waived: Marcus Harris, Zion, Logue, Casey Rogers.
Analysis: Jordan Phillips officially signed Monday for fourth stint with the Bills, but he will be released Tuesday and re-sign to the practice squad as an insurance policy while Ogunjobi is suspended.
That also means ideas for a trade for Carter before 4 p.m. Tuesday is likely out the window. Rookies Sanders and Walker jumped Carter, a 2024 third-round pick, during the final two preseason games. He had been Jones’ primary backup at 1-technique the first few weeks.
Carter, who played well in the weeks preceding wrist surgery, only to be a healthy scratch during the postseason. It’s early in the game for Beane to give up on a high draft pick so early.
Linebacker (5): Joe Andreessen, Terrel Bernard, Matt Milano, Shaq Thompson, Dorian Williams.
Injured reserve: Keonta Jenkins.
Waived: Jimmy Ciarlo, Edefuan Ulofoshio.
Analysis: Thompson is the wild card because we haven’t seen him play much over the last three weeks due to a hamstring injury and he’s already coming off two major leg injuries sustained over the previous two seasons. There also isn’t a clear replacement for him.
Jenkins might have pushed for a roster spot before suffering a high ankle sprain against the Bears. And considering the Bills have waived eight injured players during the preseason, it’s telling that he’s still on the roster.
Ciarlo impressed on special teams after signing two weeks into training camp. Given teams are allowed two practice squad call-ups per week, it might not have been enough to crack the 53-man roster.
Ciarlo did outplay 2024 fifth-round pick Ulofoshio. Ciarlo and Jenkins are strong practice squad candidates.
Cornerback (6): Christian Benford, Ja’Marcus Ingram, Taron Johnson, Cam Lewis, Dorian Strong, Tre’Davious White.
Injured reserve: Maxwell Hairston.
Released: Dane Jackson.
Waived: Zy Alexander, Daequan Hardy, Garnett Hollis Jr.
Analysis: White’s injury severity and timetable will be a game-changer. Jackson was ahead of Ingram all preseason until the final game, when Jackson played into the fourth quarter. It was a struggle for him for most of camp.
But Ingram or sixth-round pick Strong don’t seem to be viable options to start opposite Benford and Hairston doesn’t appear close to a return. So there could be some optimism about White’s injury or the Bills are already planning to look outside the organization.
Safeties (4): Cole Bishop, Damar Hamlin, Jordan Hancock, Taylor Rapp.
Released: Darrick Forrest Jr., Tre Herndon.
Analysis: It was a rough summer for starters Bishop and Rapp. But it seems they are undoubtedly the starting tandem heading into Week 1, with Hamlin serving as the No. 3 safety.
Hancock had a promising first two preseason games before the second was cut short with a shoulder injury. Because Bills coach Sean McDermott doesn’t play rookie safeties often and his injury, Hancock might be fighting for a jersey on game days to start the season.
Special teams (4): Tyler Bass, Brandon Codrington, Reid Ferguson, Brad Robbins.
Cuts: None.
Analysis: The punt return job is still in the air. Davis and Johnson can handle kick returns if the Bills don’t want to keep a specialist, but they don’t currently have a healthy option for punts. That opens the door for Codrington, who struggled at slot cornerback during the preseason and was a healthy scratch during the playoffs.