Methuen is one win from its second straight Division 1 state semifinal berth. But earning a shot at its first ever true state championship game trip won’t come easy.
On Thursday, the No. 6-seeded Rangers (7-2) will take the roughly 50-minute drive to No. 3 Needham (8-1) in the Division 1 quarterfinals (7 p.m.)
Needham ranks No. 14 in the New England Football Journal state-wide polls, just ahead of Methuen (No. 16). Conversely, the Rangers (No. 6) hold the edge over the Rockets (No. 9) in the Maxpreps.com Massachusetts rankings.
Fresh off a 35-17 win over Westford Academy in the first round, Needham has won four straight heading into Thursday’s action. The Rockets have allowed just 11.9 points per game, while scoring 24.3 points a game. By comparison, Methuen is averaging 33.3 points a game, and is allowing 20.4 points a game.
Needham is led by running back Tate Hoffmeister. The Trinity College recruit has rushed for 1,415 yards this fall, including 219 yards and two TDs last weekend against Westford Academy. QB Griffin Carr threw for 142 yards and a score last week.
The Rockets’ lone loss was a 10-9 setback to Milford back on Oct. 6.
Needham’s defense, though, hasn’t faced an offense like Drew Eason (1,962 yards, 18 TDs passing) and the Rangers offense.
Prediction: Methuen 38, Needham 28
Thursday’s Tournament Game
No. 12 Weymouth (7-2) at No. 4 Andover (8-1) — A year after falling to eventual state champ St. John’s Prep in the Division 1 quarterfinals, the Golden Warriors are back. Weymouth blanked Lincoln-Sudbury (20-0) in the first round. For the season, the Wildcats are scoring 20.1 points a game, way behind Andover’s 35.0 points a game. The Warriors also hold a microscopic edge on defense (17.6-17.9 ppg).
Prediction: Andover 34, Weymouth 21
Friday’s Tournament Game
No. 8 Bishop Guertin (7-3) at No. 1 Pinkerton (9-1) — Has anything changed since Pinkerton walloped Bishop Guertin 56-17 back on Oct. 6? The Astros haven’t, heading into the D1 quarters. They dominated their way to a perfect regular season and first round bye. The Cardinals have won have won four straight since that loss, but the opponents owned a combined 12 wins. BG is scoring 29.8 points a game and allowing 24.4 points a game.
Prediction: Pinkerton 42, Bishop Guertin 14
Saturday’s Tournament Games
No. 6 Salem (7-3) at No. 3 Bedford (9-0) — The Blue Devils are dreaming of an upset over the defending state champs in the D1 quarterfinals. Bedford rolled through the regular season, posting five shutouts and allowing just 27 total points (3.2 ppg). The Bulldogs have scored 36.4 points a game. Leading the champs are running back Brody Helton (1,124 yards, 17 TDs rushing) and QB Danny Black (889 yards, 9 TD passing).
Prediction: Bedford 34, Salem 24
No. 4 St. Thomas (7-3) at No. 1 Pelham (9-0) — Standing between the Pythons and a fourth straight trip to the state title game is the only team that hung with them in the regular season. Pelham beat St. Thomas just 14-0 on Sept. 8, in a game that was called at halftime due to lightning. The Saints are scoring 22.7 points and allowing 13.0 points a game. Pelham’s scoring 44.7 points a game.
Prediction: Pelham 44, St. Thomas 21
Thursday’s Non-Tournament Games
Pentucket (5-3) at Greater Lawrence (4-5) — The Reggies snapped a three-game losing streak by beating Boston Latin last week (38-28). Pentucket fell to Saugus (20-8) last week, snapping a three-game winning streak for the Panthers. Leading Pentucket is QB Caleb Meisner, who has thrown for 1,751 yards and 16 TDs.
Prediction: Pentucket 24, Greater Lawrence 21
Woburn (6-3) at North Andover (6-3) — A battle of teams that fell in the state tournament last week, the Scarlet Knights in Division 2 and Woburn in Division 3. The Tanners have lost two of their last three, after winning four straight. They’re scoring 30.2 points a game, and allowing 16.0 points a game. The Knights will need the form from the Tewksbury upset.
Prediction: Woburn 26, North Andover 24
Northeast (4-5) at Whittier (6-3) — A battle of traditional CAC foes in the State Vocational semifinals. The Wildcats will look to rebound from last week’s 35-8 loss to Melrose. Northeast has won three of its last four, including a win over Greater Lawrence (34-26) and rolling over Dracut (30-14) last week. The Knights are averaging 23.3 points a game and allowing 26.6 points a game.
Prediction: Whittier 32, Northeast 24
Friday’s Non-Tournament Games
Everett (7-1) at Central Catholic (3-6) — Perhaps the most intriguing non-tournament matchup since the format was established a decade ago. The Raiders pushed Springfield Central in the D1 first round, before falling 24-7. Everett was controversially left out of the tournament despite a terrific record. The Crimson Tide have allowed just 11 points, while scoring 39.3 points a game. Central’s year of facing powerhouses continues.
Prediction: Everett 38, Central Catholic 24
Haverhill (2-7) at Arlington (3-6) — The Hillies are coming off tough losses to Lawrence (15-14) and Chelmsford (32-22). Arlington has lost three straight (combined 108-21 margin) and dropped five of its last six games. The Spy Ponders are allowing 30.9 points a game and scoring 24.0 points a game.
Prediction: Haverhill 24, Arlington 18
Lawrence (4-5) at Westford Academy (5-4) — Lawrence is playing its best football of the season, winners of two straight over Haverhill (15-14) and Lynn Classical (38-30). Westford Academy has lost two straight, after being knocked out of the Division 1 tournament by Needham (35-17) last week. The Grey Ghosts are averaging 20.9 points and allowing 23.2 points a game.
Prediction: Lawrence 21, Westford Academy 14
Saturday’s Non-Tournament Games
Phillips Academy (3-4) at Phillips Exeter (6-1) — The legendary rivalry is renewed. The Big Blue are coming off a big win over Suffield (24-20), rallying from two scores down in the fourth quarter. Andover’s Lincoln Beal ran for 81 yards, and Adam Landry threw three touchdowns. The Big Red have won five straight, and are averaging 31.9 points a game.
Prediction: Phillips Exeter 32, Phillips Academy 24
Tabor Academy (6-1) at Brooks (3-4) — Brooks has lost two of three. Tabor suffered its only loss two weeks ago (28-21 to Lawrence Academy), but responded by crushing Middlesex (54-17). The Seawolves are averaging 41.0 points and surrendering 18.6 points a game.
Prediction: Tabor 38, Brooks 18
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