The Buffalo Bills and New York Jets enter Monday’s game in different places, but holding the same goal.
The Jets fired head coach Robert Saleh amid rumors quarterback Aaron Rodgers orchestrated the decision with owner Woody Johnson, while offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett was demoted in favor of passing game coordinator Todd Downing.
Still, the Jets can move into a tie for first place against a Buffalo Bills team looking to avoid their first three-game losing streak since quarterback Josh Allen’s rookie season in 2018, games Allen didn’t even play in. And the Bills haven’t been held to fewer than 20 points in three consecutive games since 2020.
Here are four areas to watch:
First down: Can the Buffalo offense snap out of its funk?
Allen had the fewest completions (9) of any quarterback with 30 attempts in a game since 1992 last week. He has one touchdown pass in his last two games and is averaging a career-low 189 yards per game.
Offensive coordinator Joe Brady has struggled with predictability, Allen has been pressing too hard to make a play and the receivers haven’t been able to get open against man-to-man coverage. Simply put: everyone has stunk in the last two games.
Now they get a Jets defense that has allowed two touchdown passes all season. Interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich is also the defensive coordinator and Allen has thrown eight interceptions and four touchdowns since he was hired in 2021, but Saleh was the play-caller during those games.
It doesn’t appear the Bills will have receiver Khalil Shakir (ankle) for a second game in a row, while Mack Hollins (shoulder) and Curtis Samuel (toe) were both on the injury report this week. If ever there were a time for Brady to retool his thought process, this is the game to do it.
“They’ve got some talented players in the back end. A really good linebacker duo,” Allens said. “They’re a tough defense to play against. (No. 2), I think. Establishing the run and making sure we can try to commit to that. Again, being smart with where the football’s going, how quickly we get it out of our hands.”
Second down: Running the ball less predictably
The Bills also may not have Pro Bowl running back James Cook (toe) after not practicing all week. That still shouldn’t be cause for the Bills to stray from the running game, it just has to come in less obvious situations.
Buffalo is running the ball nearly twice the amount its passing on first down (82-47) this season and they have done it predictably by bringing in guard Alec Anderson as a sixth offensive linemen on a chunk of those plays.
The Bills are gaining 4.2 yards per play on first downs this season and then facing 7.1 yards to gain on third down. In Brian Daboll’s last two seasons as offensive coordinator (2020-2021), the Bills gained 5.9 yards on first down, while Ken Dorsey’s offense averaged 5.8 in 1 ½ seasons.
With Daboll and Dorsey calling the plays, the BIlls threw the ball on first down 57.4% of the time. If the Bills need a sixth lineman (they don’t) to run the ball effectively, it’s going to be awfully hard to set up play-action passes, which has been a glaring absence.
The Bills rank 27th in the NFL with 19 play-action passes this season, after finishing no lower than 12th the previous four seasons, including leading the league in 2020 and 2021. Play-action passes accounted for nearly 25% of Allen’s attempts from 2020-2023, compared to 14.5% this season, despite the team running at a higher clip than ever before.
Brady will need to loosen up the defense with a backfield of Ty Johnson, Ray Davis and Darrynton Evans, who is eligible to return from injured reserve (hamstring). Johnson has proven capable on passing downs, but has just 70 rushing attempts in his last three seasons, while Davis is averaging just 2.9 in his first five NFL games.
Third down: Can a new play-caller give the Jets a boost?
While Allen has been under duress the last two weeks, it has been nowhere near what Rodgers has been subjected to endure. Rodgers has been blitzed 47 times over the last two games and has been hit 24 times, both most in a two-game stretch in his career.
Generally teams get an initial spark when a new play-caller is installed and Downing — who was the Bills quarterbacks coach for Hackett in 2014 — had some success as offensive coordinator for the Tennessee Titans in 2021 and 2022. The Titans ran the ball 51.2% of the time under Downing and he could add some life to an anemic rushing offense.
The Jets averaged fewer than 100 yards per game last season, but it has hit new depths, ranking last in the NFL with 80.4 yards per game and just 3.6 yards per carry. Breece Hall, who averaged 4.8 yards per carry in his first three games has posted just 3 this season, with his snaps dwindling beside rookie Braelon Allen.
Ultimately, the game likely comes down to whether the Bills can create pressure on Rodgers. It would be out of Buffalo’s nature to blitz him heavily, so it will become a chess match in the 10 seconds prior to the snap and the two seconds after the ball is snapped.
Limiting the run game early forces the Jets to throw and protect Rodgers behind a leaky offensive line.
“You go back and forth,” Bills linebacker Terrel Bernard said. “I think what we have to do is understand what he’s seeing, so what we present to him, we understand what he’s getting into, and understand what he’s switching the play to, or where he wants to get the ball. So having that in the back of your mind can give you a step forward of understanding kind of where the ball is going or what he’s seeing to try to manipulate the defense.”
Fourth down: Starting fast
The Bills are 26-6 under coach Sean McDermott when they score points on their first possession, compared to 25-14 when they don’t. In games the Bills have scored first this season, they have outscored opponents 78-20.
The Bills have been outscored 41-6 in the first half over the last two weeks, and while they have been able to make a run in the second half (Houston more than Baltimore), playing from behind so often leaves little room for error, as they have shown.
Brady needs to get Allen into a rhythm early in the game by finding him some easy throws to complete so that he isn’t pressing to make a play if the offense is struggling. Allen has gone from completing 78.3% of his passes for 431 yards and five touchdowns before halftime in the first three games to 44.1% completions and 88 yards in the last two games.
On the other side, the Jets have outscored opponents 24-10 in the first half of their two wins, compared to trailing 33-20 in three losses.