ORCHARD PARK — Conventional thinking says a team doesn’t fire a coach as successful as Sean McDermott without having a plan for his replacement.
The Buffalo Bills claim their search for a new head coach is wide-open. They also said age and area of football expertise won’t narrow the pool of candidates.
Take that with a grain of salt because even without their current circumstances, the Bills aren’t going to publicly admit who or what they are searching to find. But there are breadcrumbs to follow.
The Bills have or are scheduled to interview eight candidates thus far, with more potentially coming next week. And if they choose to wait for candidates from teams that reach the Super Bowl, they have to wait until afterwards to interview them.
But of the eight current candidates, six have offensive backgrounds and five are under 50. For as much as the move to fire McDermott was about getting to a Super Bowl, it was just as much about maximizing quarterback Josh Allen’s talents to get there.
“We have … an MVP quarterback who just completed his eighth season here,” Bills general manager Brandon Beane said. “And we have to help him get to the Super Bowl and bring a championship to Buffalo.”
Unless offensive coordinator Joe Brady, the first person interviewed for the position, is promoted, Allen will have his fourth play-caller in six seasons. Finding an offensive-minded head coach who calls plays eliminates the risk of losing a play-caller because great quarterbacks typically produce head coaches.
The Kansas City Chiefs have had various offensive coordinators, but the only play-caller Patrick Mahomes has had since entering the NFL is head coach Andy Reid. Tom Brady had three play-callers in 20 seasons with the New England Patriots.
Allen has been involved with all of the interviews thus far as the Bills attempt to appease him, not to keep him — he has dead cap hits of $173 million, $87 million and $29 million over the next three seasons — but because owner Terry Pegula views him as historically great talent.
Besides Brady, the second interview the Bills conducted was former offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, who Allen has a close relationship with from his first four seasons. If the Denver Broncos lose to the Patriots in the AFC championship, it would be surprising if the Bills interviewed quarterbacks coach Davis Webb.
Webb was a backup to Allen from 2019-2021 and developed a close friendship. He’s considered one of the NFL’s rising coaching prospects and the Bills even asked him to be their quarterbacks coach when Ken Dorsey was promoted to offensive coordinator in 2022 before deciding to play one more season with the Giants.
There’s always an outside-the-box candidate and it appears Philip Rivers is that person for the Bills. The former quarterback made headlines for starting three games for the Indianapolis Colts at 44 despite not having played since losing to the Bills in the 2020 AFC wild-card round.
Rivers has been coaching at St. Michael Catholic High School in Alabama, but also has a close relationship with Allen. The same agency (Creative Artists Agency) represents the two and Rivers did schematic and on-field work with Allen in the lead-up to the 2018 NFL Draft.
Allen’s first NFL start also came against a Los Angeles Chargers team quarterbacked by Rivers.
The Bills met with Rivers Friday in what is a completely different type of coaching search than Pegula has conducted in his previous two attempts. The last two more about rebuilding a chaotic culture of losing in the franchise in which Pegula tried to follow curmudgeon Doug Marrone with the boisterous Rex Ryan and then went back to a more reserved coach in McDermott when Ryan flamed out in less than two seasons.
This search won’t be as much about culture as it is schematics. The Bills want to find someone who can ensure Allen continues to improve, along with run blocking schemes, defensive schemes and how they fit with the current roster or players they can realistically acquire.
“We’ll talk about schemes and is anything changing on offense, defense, how that’ll work and we’ll then look at the roster together,” Beane said. “… The healthiest way to find players is that we’re as close to lockstep as you can, not only signing players that the coaches think work or only what the personnel guys think. It’s a consensus building.”
But the Bills also made it clear that whomever they hire must be able to manage the entire roster, not just the offense or call plays. Only two former full-time head coaches — Daboll and Miami’s Mike McDaniel — have been requested to interview thus far. And both of their first jobs fizzled amid rumors of chaotic environments.
“It’s a CEO job,” Beane said. “A lot of your time as a head coach or GM get taken away. Me from scouting, watching players or a coach in their scheming, Xs and Os. So we got to make sure we get the leadership, the CEO part.”
Plenty of coaches have won Super Bowls after being fired from their first job, but both would have to make massive overhauls to their approach to make a second chance work. But young candidates are just as risky.
Webb (31) and Jacksonville Jaguars offensive coordinator Grant Udinski (30) have not only never called plays, but have never been in charge of an entire team. That would likely lead to a veteran coaching staff with a coordinator or assistant head coach with a long track record of winning in the NFL.
Rivers obviously knows the game and has connections to assistant coaches around the league, but managing an NFL team is much different than a high school squad.
The last NFL player to become a head coach a year after playing was Norm Van Brocklin in 1961. Rivers would likely require the most experienced staff among the group, as well as needing to present the most detailed plan during interviews to be taken seriously.
With John Harbaugh off the board and hired by the Giants, there is no clear-cut favorite coaching candidate in this year’s field. Mike McCarthy won often with the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys, but after sitting out last season, the 62-year-old hasn’t received much buzz.
Seattle Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, son of Super Bowl-winning coach Gary Kubiak, is the hot assistant this year. But even his name is generating acclaim like what has been seen in the past.
Frankly, it’s not a deep pool of candidates. It’s risky to trade one of the most consistent coaches in NFL history to an unknown. The Bills are well aware.
“We’ve got to make the best decision. So that’s a fact,” Pegula said. “… There’s a lot of people that want to look at taking this job. There’s a lot of interest.”