The scales of NFL justice have tilted heavily in the New England Patriots’ favor through 13 weeks.
Untimely injuries around the league, unexpected upsets and the usual team rigors of a football season have left the New England Patriots in the AFC driver’s seat, less than a full calendar year after back-to-back 4-and-13 seasons.
Don’t believe it’s the year of the Patriot? Watch on Sunday and when the pathetic Raiders find a way to knock off 10-2 Denver, you just might.
But now that Mike Vrabel’s crew is here on the precipice of claiming the top seed in the AFC and the accompanying playoff bye, what has to happen in the remaining weeks to push the Pats over the top?
We look at that scenario this week as New England enjoys the final bye week of the NFL season.
1. No setbacks for Milton
There is no secret here. When the defense’s best player, Milton Williams, went down to injury, New England took a step back.
Williams, the free-agent pickup from the Eagles, was wreaking havoc up front defensively at a first-team All-Pro pace.
Since, he was put on IR, opposing runners have had their way and the pass rush has deteriorated.
The Pats need Williams to return more than anything else in the next four weeks.
Williams isn’t Myles Garrett, but he was playing in the tier right below the Browns’ game-wrecker, who sits in a class by himself.
Hopefully, all goes well with the rehab of his high ankle sprain, and Williams can return when he is eligible in Week 17 against the Jets.
2. Someone to emerge on the edge
Protect the passer. Rush the passer. It’s a formula that can’t be beaten in the postseason.
New England has not been consistent in either, to be honest.
Harold Landry has been a disappointment on the edge. K’Lavon Chaisson has cooled considerably with two sacks over the last six weeks (a half sack less than Pats castoff Keion White has with the 49ers).
Landry and Chaisson need to heat up by January or this defense will be thoroughly vulnerable.
3. A Chiefs knockout
Patriots fans can fear Josh Allen and Buffalo, and that’s fine.
But the only player and team that should cause Vrabel to lie awake at night are Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs have owned the AFC since Tom Brady left town, and that means something. They have the top QB/Coach combo in the game with a winning mentality to match.
New England might not have the stuff to match that just yet. The Patriots need some help from the remaining teams on the KC slate. If the Chiefs make the playoffs, they are a scary proposition.
So, let’s hope they don’t.
4. Simple split
New England is heading to the playoffs. Clinching their spot is a mere formality for the Patriots.
The next two weeks, though, provide a chance for the absolute separation. A split over the next two, over Buffalo at home and Baltimore on the road, puts New England in charge of the AFC with gimmes against the Dolphins and Jets to close things out.
5. New England weather
The warm weather and dome teams are lining up in the AFC for the playoffs
The Chargers, Texans and Jaguars are all in position to earn spots in the playoffs.
None of the have a shot if they have to come to Foxborough in January.
They will offer very little in the form of resistance if it’s your typical New England January.
Because of the elements, Gillette Stadium is as great a postseason advantage as any in the league. Yes, I’m talking to you KC, Buffalo, Philly and Seattle.
So bring on the sun belt types and make the road to the Super Bowl as paved as possible.