OSKALOOSA — The Iowa Caucuses, the state’s tradition-laden, grass-roots approach to picking presidential candidates, arrives Monday. But for Democrats, the tradition is taking on a different look.
The Republican Caucus is set for Jan. 15, with delegates from all 99 Iowa counties prepared to select their candidate. Former President Donald Trump has maintained a dominating lead in pre-caucus polling. FiveThirtyEight, a website created by Nate Silver that analyzes opinion polling, shows Trump has about 51.3% of support among likely Iowa Republican caucus attendees. DeSantis and Haley are second and third in consensus polling with 17.2% and 15.8%, respectively.
The Democrats will also caucus Jan. 15, but that meeting will be to determine party platforms and not their preferred presidential nominee. Instead, national decisions have forced Iowa Democrats to use a mail-in presidential preference process from Jan. 12 through March 5 to determine how Iowa’s delegates will vote at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
Even with Democratic Party changes, Republicans have held true to tradition as their efforts to deny President Joe Biden’s re-election bid has kept the focus on Iowa’s oft-debated process.
As a format, the Iowa Caucuses date back to the 19th Century when they began as an informal process soon after the state’s founding in 1846. Over time, they became more and more structured, but it wasn’t until 1972 when they became binding at the national level.
While most states chose the simple route of holding a self-explanatory, binding primary election; Iowa chose a different path. Democrats held their first Iowa Caucus in 1972, and Republicans held their first in 1976.
First in the nation
Iowa’s path to becoming the nation’s first contest for presidential hopefuls was not necessarily intentional. But after the contest landed in January as the nation’s first, state officials for both parties have made significant efforts to maintain the status quo.
It has had a huge impact, both politically and economically, shining a spotlight on the state and generating millions of dollars in political-related spending. Andrew Green, a professor of political science at Central College in Pella, says that the change was almost immediate. The impact from the 1972 caucus carried forward into the 1976 election.
“What they realized, in the aftermath [of 1972], because Iowa ended up being the first caucus in the country that year, was that the candidates really paid attention to the state, and as a result of that the media also paid attention to the state as well,” Green said. “So in 1976, the Iowa Republican Party also decided to move their caucuses early on the same evening as the Democrats … That was the cycle where a relatively unknown governor from Georgia, Jimmy Carter, came to the state, unexpectedly came in second in the Iowa Caucuses, and then vaulted his way to the nomination, and ultimately to the presidency.”
Carter took home 27.6% of the vote in the 1976 Democratic caucuses after heavy campaigning in the lead-up, making him the winner among the five named candidates. As another 37.2% of the vote was uncommitted, the caucuses gave Carter the momentum he needed to eventually win the nomination.
“That really was the genesis for the emphasis for the Iowa Democratic Party and the Iowa Republican Party to keep their caucuses first, and they’ve worked very, very hard over the last 40, 45 years to do so,” Green added.
To court Iowa’s voters, candidates often start building political networks in Iowa years in advance of the nomination cycle. Political spending skyrockets as campaign teams and the media descend on the Midwest, first in smaller bites for an “invisible primary” in the years leading up to the nomination, then in mass quantities for the real deal.
“We’re talking about campaign offices being leased. We’re talking about convention centers being booked, meeting spaces being booked, you name it. Which all brings a lot of money into the state,” Green said.
In the aftermath of the 2020 presidential election, the Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee voted to designate South Carolina as the leadoff presidential nominating state. The Democrats’ presidential primary there is Feb. 3 while the Republicans’ primary there is Feb. 24.
Green said key reasons include voter-accessibility given the time commitment of the caucuses and Iowa’s demographics.
“Iowa, demographically, is much more white than a lot of other areas of the country, other states in the nation,” Green said. “So there were real questions about whether starting in Iowa made sense for a party that wasn’t necessarily demographically represented in the state.”
Iowa law requires that the parties hold caucuses prior to the first Monday in February. Republicans hold a near super-majority in the two chambers of the Iowa Legislature, and have indicated no appetite to change the law to support Democrats’ desires to move the caucuses.
Political climate today
The caucuses largely have not served as a good fortune-teller in presidential races. Both Carter and Barack Obama won in Iowa before ascending to the presidency, but on the Republican side, winning in Iowa hasn’t traditionally been enough. George W. Bush, in 2000, was the last Republican to win Iowa and wind up the Republican nominee.
“Going from Mike Huckabee to Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum … the last several winners of the Iowa caucus have gone nowhere after Iowa,” Kedron Bardwell, a professor of political science at Simpson College in Indianola, said.
The acrimony that has plagued American politics in recent years serves to both complicate the situation, and intensify it. For one thing, it’s a good way to ensure the voters come out in force.
“Funny thing is, acrimony sometimes drives up turnout,” Bardwell said. “That’s actually what we found in the last election, is that we had the highest turnout we’ve had in decades, and partly because it was such an acrimonious race between [Donald] Trump and [Joe] Biden.”
Still, in spite of everything, on Monday the world will be watching Iowa, and democracy’s greatest race will once again hit “go.”