ORCHARD PARK — Have we gone back in time? Is it 2024 or 2025?
The Buffalo Bills are in a familiar position. Last year, the Bills were coming off a dreadful offensive performance and heading into a Week 6 Monday Night Football matchup with questions about whether their wide receivers are adequate enough.
Well, here we are again. Although the Bills enter Monday’s game against the Atlanta Falcons 4-1 instead of 3-2 like they were last year.
The Bills passing game has been unsatisfying through five games as they have taken a run-heavy approach with seemingly little desire to push the ball downfield. And it was magnified in Sunday’s 23-20 loss to the New England Patriots.
The naked eye says Buffalo’s receivers didn’t generate enough big plays against New England’s talented trio of cornerbacks — Carlton Davis III, Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones — and they haven’t been spectacular since Josh Allen threw for 394 yards in the season opener against the Baltimore Ravens.
Bills receivers are averaging just 11.8 yards per catch this season and there’s no question they aren’t making enough big plays outside. But is it talent or circumstance?
“There was times when we had some (separation), times when we didn’t,” Bills coach Sean McDermott said. “Overall, we want to get more. It’s easier said than done. (The Patriots) were playing good defense. They did some things maybe they hadn’t shown on tape as well that affected some of the scheme part.”
Last year’s early struggles led to the Bills trading for Amari Cooper the day after beating the New York Jets in Week 6. Cooper made his share of big plays for the Bills, although a broken wrist limited his impact.
But Buffalo’s struggles against man-to-man coverage turned out to be unfounded by the end of the season. The Bills ranked 11th in the league in average separation yards (3.6) and Allen threw for 1,315 yards and 20 of his 29 touchdowns against man coverage last year.
Allen has been even better against man, with his completion percentage jumping from 58.5% to 64.2% and he’s on pace to have 1,652 yards. And against the Patriots — who have one of the top cornerback groups in the NFL — Allen went 11 of 15 for 180 yards against man coverage.
The Bills have faced among the highest rates of man coverage in the league, but some of that is how they play. They certainly don’t have a top-flight receiver who commands extra attention, but the Bills also frequently like to use fullback Reggie Gilliam and multiple tight end-sets, which often requires a defense to bring an extra defender into the box and necessitates man coverage outside, like the Patriots.
Despite having one of the most feared quarterbacks in the league, the Bills have faced a stacked box on 27.3% of their run plays — which come out of heavy personnel over 60% of the time — which is the third-highest rate in the league.
“We got a good amount of man coverage (against the Patriots) — we had opportunities that we won on, some that we have to make better plays on the ball,” Brady said. “There’s not many players in the NFL that are going to truly run away from man coverage.”
And for all the talk about separation, the Bills rank sixth in the NFL in that category per NFL Next Gen Stats. Their 3.7-yard average is the highest since Allen became the team’s starting quarterback in 2018.
Khalil Shakir ranks seventh among receivers in separation (4.1), a year after finishing second at 4.3. Keon Coleman is averaging just 2.9 this year and Joshua Palmer is at 2.2
But of the eight players averaging over 4 yards of separation, Shakir is the only with over 200 yards. And of the 21 1,000-yard receivers last year, only Baltimore’s Zay Flowers averaged over 3.5.
Even when Stefon Diggs was leading the league in receptions during his four years with the Bills, his best separation average was 3 (in 2020) and he never hit that mark again before being traded to the Houston Texans last year.
The Cincinnati Bengals, who have perhaps the league’s top receiver tandem in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, are the only team in the league with less than a 3-yard separation average.
“That corner tandem is probably the best we’ll face all year,” Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady said. “But we also have to improve both in scheme and at the top of our routes and clean that up. Not something I’m concerned about, but we are what we put on tape.”
More than anything, Allen is missing a true primary receiver in got-to-have-it moments. Who is Allen’s primary read on third down?
Ninety-three of Diggs’ catches with the Bills came on third or fourth down and 76 resulted in first downs. Since Diggs’ departure, Shakir leads the team with 29 of those targets, nearly double of No. 2 Dalton Kincaid.
Because the Bills sparingly run James Cook out of three-wide receiver sets, it limits how much Kincaid, Palmer and Shakir are on the field.
Shakir, who has a team-high 22 receptions, is only playing 61% of the snaps. Kincaid, who leads the team with 287 yards receiving, is only 49% of the total offensive snaps and 66.3% of called passing plays. No team’s leading receiver plays a lower percentage and only Diggs (55%) plays under 70%.
And once those players are on the field, the play call has to be correct. In what has become a viral video of Allen bailing on a clean pocket on the final third down against the Patriots only for Curtis Samuel to streak open for a possible touchdown a half second later, Brady called a man beater and the Patriots played zone.
The same thing happened on fourth and 2 against the Kansas City Chiefs last year. The difference was that Allen was able to run for a touchdown.
“Sometimes it might be a play and they did a good job disguising man and we’re running a zone concept,” Brady said. “Is that the receiver’s fault that there’s not separation against man when we’re running a zone scheme or is that a scheme fault? … We’re going to have to improve against man coverage on early downs, not just third down.”