Alex Thomas is a professor of sociology at SUNY Oneonta and a graduate of Cooperstown High School. He is fascinated by Otsego County — its past, its present and its future. His expertise is in community trends and planning, and he has worked with local organizations and municipalities which include the city of Oneonta, Otsego County, the Community Foundation of Otsego County, the County Industrial Development Agency and more. His current project is the PLACES Institute. The institute aims to use the resources of SUNY Oneonta to conduct research designed to help build a positive future for Oneonta and Otsego County.
I sat down with Thomas at Starbucks on campus to learn more, both about PLACES and where he sees our region going in the future. As for PLACES, Thomas said, “My hope is if we have people doing research locally, we can identify challenges that we have and we can try to address solutions to them.”
Thomas said he sees the New York City metropolitan area as constantly expanding. What used to be the resorts — Ulster and Delaware counties — is what he now calls the exurbs-zone and he explains, “It is now cutting across Delaware and Schoharie Counties, driving the property costs up tremendously, making it difficult for people to actually afford a house there.” What about Otsego County? “The problem is more localized in Hartwick (where Thomas lives) and Cooperstown” due to baseball, Thomas explained. With Airbnb type short-term rentals depriving local families of housing while clearly boosting the local economy, I asked Thomas if he sees the explosion of short-term rentals as a net positive or net negative. After a long pause, he answered, “That’s a little hard to say. I would say that, overall, it is a net positive — but not a huge positive”.
Thomas does see tourism as providing a foundation upon which we can grow, he said. “A lot of the infrastructure required for tourism can also be used by the people who live here, ultimately increasing the quality of life for local families,” he said and then asked, “Are we doing everything we can to achieve the best balance? Is there more we can do? I would say there is.” But then he added, “Social science is a lot like meteorology — complex dynamics. The bat of a butterfly wing way over here, causes a hurricane way over there.” Yikes! Bringing us back to Hartwick, I asked if it was correct that the town of Hartwick has no zoning laws and, if so, would zoning help to find that best balance? “Politically it is difficult to get that through,” Thomas replied. But would it be helpful, I asked. “It would,” he replied. He hesitated and then said, “there is no getting away from that.”
Setting aside the impact of butterfly wings, I wanted to hear his predictions for the future. “We have had 50 years of status quo,” Thomas said, “so don’t expect change to happen overnight.” He said he sees the key to a more prosperous future for Otsego County as recognizing that we are at “the nexus of north-south-east-west. Albany–Binghamton is east-west while New York City-Utica is north-south,” Thomas pointed out. “We are at the nexus. If I could have a magic wand, I would bring high speed rail here tomorrow. Eventually, the spread of New York City is going to be here.” While it is a long shot, Thomas feels our local governments should be doing more to advocate for it.
Thomas applauded the county IDA for investing in the development of a business park in Richfield Springs, but he asked, “Why not take a chance and build an eco-park right here in Oneonta’s rail yards? What’s going on that we can build here?” He said, “There is chip development to the north of us and batteries being made to the south in Binghamton.” Looking ahead, Thomas said, “We need to allow ourselves to dream and picture a future that is not reliant on where we are now. We need to look at what is going on in the desert Southwest. There is a good chance that in 30 years we are going to need our farmland again.” As for solar panels, “They should be above parking lots, not on farmland,” he said.
So, I asked, with all of your data, research, and planning, what do you see for our future in the next five, 10 or 15 years? After some thought, Thomas said, “Predictions are something we really shouldn’t engage in for the same reason that the weather forecast is not going to tell you the temperature at 7 p.m. one year from now.” He did, however, say we need a plan that takes into consideration global trends. “People will want to move north. This will be a good place to be,” he said.
Recognizing that change is hard, Thomas closed our conversation with, “The best way to get back to the past is to look to the future.” and look out for butterfly wings?