An unseasonably strong low pressure traversing the Great Lakes on Thursday will bring a widespread high wind event to Western Maryland and the Potomac Highlands.
The low pressure will spark severe weather and tornadoes in the Midwest on Wednesday. The low pressure responsible for the storms will intensify as it pushes into the Great Lakes and eastern Canada on Thursday.
Ultimately, the low pressure will likely break the former June record of 993 millibars for southeast Michigan, previously set on both June 23, 1990, and June 29, 1957.
A round of early morning storms will reach Garrett County Thursday but dry out before reaching the eastern edge of the Allegheny Front. Instead, as the low deepens in eastern Canada, a large pressure gradient will develop with the surface high pressure moving in behind it across Minnesota.
While there could be a brief severe thunderstorm west of state Route 36 in the afternoon, the down sloping flow and high shear environment will preclude any thunderstorms for the remainder of the region Thursday.
During the day, particularly between noon and 5 p.m., the region will see wind gusts increase substantially under a partly sunny sky. The peak gusts will reach 50-55 mph in Garrett County and 45-55 mph in Allegany, Grant, Mineral, Hampshire and Hardy counties.
These gusts will occur occasionally through the afternoon. The sustained or constant wind speed will be about 15 to 25 mph.
The winds will likely bring power outages across the region. Residents should secure outdoor lawn furniture, including umbrellas and chairs. Additionally, the gusty winds and hot temperatures, with highs in the lower 90s in eastern Allegany County and 80s west of the Allegheny Divide, will bring a high brush fire risk. Residents are urged to avoid burning brush on Thursday due to the windy and dry conditions.
The strong southwest wind pushing across Lake Erie on Thursday will likely develop a seiche. This is a push of water from the southwest end of the lake near Toledo, Ohio, to near Buffalo. Unusually lower lake levels are likely near Toledo with coastal flooding and beach erosion expected near Buffalo. This will make for dangerous boating conditions on Lake Erie.
In the tri-state area, Friday and Saturday will be cooler, less humid but still breezy with a higher-than-average brush fire risk.
Meanwhile, a low pressure along the Texas Gulf Coast could briefly become Tropical Storm Arthur before making inroads into southern Louisiana late Wednesday. It will bring occasional downpours to the Gulf Coast and Southeast.
The cold front that pushes through here Thursday night will be the catalyst to keep the rain from this tropical rainstorm from reaching the tri-state region this weekend.