After a shootout loss to the Los Angeles Rams, a weary Sean McDermott stepped to the podium.
His Buffalo Bills just lost a 44-42 game that saw his defense get ravaged, torn apart with little resistance. Worse, the Rams made it a slow burn by keeping the Buffalo defense on the field for over 38 minutes.
Meanwhile, Josh Allen had a historic game, accounting for 424 yards and six touchdowns as the offense surpassed 30 points for the seventh time in an eventual eight-game streak. Still, McDermott’s first comments were directed at a running game that got just 20 yards on six attempts from James Cook.
“We certainly scored a lot of points, moved the ball, in particular through the passing game,” McDermott said in his opening statement. “Still would like to have seen us be able to run the ball a little bit more with our running backs.”
McDermott heaped more unsolicited praise on Allen upfront the following week after beating the Detroit Lions, but there was no way to dodge it when the Bills won 48-42 and they ran for 197 yards. Still, it was clear the idea of playing a game in the 40s made McDermott cringe.
It was no surprise that the Bills tried to dominate time of possession against the Denver Broncos in the AFC wild-card round, pounding away at the NFL’s third-ranked run defense for 210 yards, holding the ball for more than 42 minutes.
The Baltimore Ravens pose a much different challenge, boasting the top run defense in the league after allowing 80.1 yards per game, 13 fewer than the No. 2 Minnesota Vikings. The Bills managed just 81 yards in the first matchup, although Cook had some early success by averaging 4.3 yards per carry.
“I think the way the flow of the game went, they couldn’t really get to their run game because they got behind quickly,” Ravens All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton said. “But, they have been really running the ball well the past few weeks. … They’ve hurt people – they hurt the Broncos last week with it. I think it is big for us as a defense to knock the run out first before we get to anything else.”
Baltimore has allowed 63 yards rushing per game over its last five, including surrendering just 29 to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. The Ravens’ pass defense, however, ranked 31st in the NFL during the regular season, allowing 244.1 yards per game.
So in a game with two teams averaging more than 30 points, and a Bills defense susceptible to the run, it would seem beneficial to rely on Allen’s arm, right? For the Bills to win, Allen will almost certainly have to play a superb game, but any chances of a shootout will have to occur organically.
So battered by injuries was the Bills defense this time last season that linebacker A.J. Klein came out of semi-retirement to start against the Kansas City Chiefs. Instead of trying to match arms, the Bills sat on the ball.
It worked in the first half, as the Bills doubled the Chiefs in time of possession and ran for 124 yards. Eventually, though, the Chiefs realized they could run the ball just as effectively and flipped the game in the second half.
Even the infamous 2021 AFC divisional round game against the Chiefs, which ended 42-36, was a 26-21 game at the two-minute warning. That was the first of three consecutive divisional round losses.
“We learn from the past; we certainly don’t live in the past,” McDermott said. “… The journey for most teams … who are trying to get to the top of the mountain, very rarely is it just a straight, clean line.”
Will Bernard and Milano give Bills a boost?
Playing the possession game means stopping Baltimore’s rushing attack at some point and that’s been a tough ask for any team this season.
The Ravens, whose 3,189 yards rushing was 107 off the NFL single-season record (also owned by the Ravens), were held under 100 yards once this season. They have surpassed 200 seven times this season, including 271 against the Bills in Week 4.
Buffalo didn’t have three key starters in that game, as linebackers Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano and cornerback Taron Johnson were all sidelined with injuries. Milano struggled at times during his first five games after going nearly 14 months between games after suffering a leg fracture last year and a torn pectoral during the preseason this year.
While the Bills are certainly better with any of those three in the lineup, but none of them are known for stopping the run. How much better against the run are the Bills with Bernard and Milano? Statistically, the answer is 9 yards per game.
Baltimore has a significant size advantage and capitalized in the first matchup. Given that Bernard and Milano are both sub-230 pounds, it won’t matter if they are in the lineup if the Buffalo defensive line can’t keep Baltimore’s offensive line and 300-pound fullback Patrick Ricard off of them.
Every member of the Ravens offensive line weighs over 300 pounds, averaging 325. The Bills defensive line, however, averages 290. That means it may also be a game where Johnson sees reduced time.
The Bills played base defense (three linebackers, four defensive backs) when the Ravens used two running backs and two tight ends (22 personnel) in the first matchup and they have shown more willingness to do so recently in certain situations. This could be a game where the Bills put Dorian Williams on the field more frequently.
“At the end of the day you just have the right mindset to go into really any game to be physical in order to dominate, you got to have a kind of nasty mindset,” Bills defensive tackle DaQuan Jones said. “And that’s why just talking about it all week with the guys and kind of just keep sharpening their mind.”
Marking Marlon
Although the Ravens have a patchy pass defense, they have two All-Pros in the secondary in Hamilton and Marlon Humphrey. It was Humphrey who gave the Bills fits in the first matchup and they need to know where he is before every snap.
During the first half of the season, Hamilton was deployed often as a slot cornerback, but he’s played more traditional safety since. Humphrey moves all over the field, playing slot and outside corner, in the box and even safety.
When the Ravens play man-to-man, Humphrey is likely to be matched up with Khalil Shakir — who suffered a high ankle sprain in the first meeting — and it will be Shakir’s toughest assignment of the season. In 37 man coverage snaps this season, Humphrey has allowed just 16 receptions and has two interceptions.
But it’s not just in coverage where Humphrey is dangerous; he’s one of the best blitzing defensive backs in the league. He blitzed four times in Week 4 and the Ravens recorded a sack on three of them.
Humphrey is superb at timing his blitz so that the offensive line has already set the protection before they know he’s coming. That happened twice to the Bills during the first contest.