President Trump’s interim peace deal with Iran, which has partially opened the Strait of Hormuz and sent oil prices tumbling (but not yet gas prices), may be good for the short term — meaning the November elections — but long term it is not in the best interests of the United States, Europe or the rest of the civilized world.
The reason is, to paraphrase stock disclaimers — Iran’s past performance on keeping its word is a guarantee of future performance. And what about those proxies Iran has been supporting? If Iran doesn’t cheat on the deal, which is a distinct possibility, they can always find help elsewhere.
I often bypass the chattering classes, diplomats and world leaders to consider the thoughts of an old friend who knows more about the Iranian mindset than anyone I know. He is former Israeli diplomat Yoram Ettinger. In his latest newsletter, he reminds people who have forgotten, and instructs people who never knew, what the true Iranian mindset looks like and how it contrasts with Western thinking.
Ettinger calls the negotiated deal “Irreconcilable and self-destructive.” The full version can be read here. What follows is my edited version that cuts to the heart of this bad deal.
“While the Ayatollah’s negotiators benefit from a marathon-like state of mind, Western negotiators are severely undermined by their sprint-like state of mind, which is prone to impatience.” We saw that on full display as the president was visibly overanxious to achieve an agreement.
Ettinger continues: “Contrary to the Ayatollah’s concept of negotiation, the Western concept assumes good faith…(it) underscores reconciliation and peaceful co-existence with both sides making concessions.” However — and this is key — “The Ayatollah’s concept of negotiation — since the 7th century — is an extension of warfare by other means. This is a tactical pause, not a final outcome. ( Its ideology) transcends financial and diplomatic considerations. They exploit agreements, then discard them when circumstances change.”
President Trump has dangled the carrot of prosperity before the regime after using the stick of bombs. Does he really believe that dictators who murdered thousands of their own people and believe Allah wants them to continue attacking the “infidels” would succumb to materialistic enticements?
Yes, Iran’s military has been weakened, but as mentioned, they take the long view. And they will likely get help rebuilding it from China, Russia and North Korea because those dictatorial countries also hate America.
Iran’s previous record of broken promises includes misleading International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors who sought to learn if Iran was enriching Uranium to a level where it could make a nuclear weapon. The deal President Trump made will likely include an agreement that inspectors again be allowed into the country. But this is like the vice squad raiding a house of ill repute and getting a promise from the Madam to cease what is going on upstairs. After they leave, it will be business as usual.
And so it most likely will be with Iran and the deal it signs. It might as well be written in disappearing ink. The president will get what he wants in time for the election, but will he get what the world needs? Based on Iran’s past performance, it is highly unlikely and the world will be worse off for it. This is why such things have been called “a deal with the devil” because the devil always comes out on top.
Readers may email Cal Thomas at tcaeditors@tribpub.com. Look for Cal Thomas’ latest book “A Watchman in the Night: What I’ve Seen Over 50 Years Reporting on America” (HumanixBooks).