Editor’s note: This is the first of an eight-part series diving into each position group for the Buffalo Bills leading into training camp July 24.
One sentence.
That’s how long it took Joe Brady in his first press conference as full-time Buffalo Bills play-caller to put ownership of the offense on Josh Allen. Questions centered on how Brady was going to craft the offense in his first full offseason, but he frequently redirected the conversation back to Allen.
During an offseason in which the predominant questions centered on what the Bills did (or didn’t do) to help Allen, the Bills have given him more responsibility. It’s Allen’s offense and it’s Allen’s team.
The Bills traded away Stefon Diggs after compiling the most catches in the NFL over the last four years, then opted not to re-sign Gabe Davis, their No. 2 option the last two seasons, and instead of trading up in the first round of the draft for a receiver, they traded out of the first round.
And yet the Bills have been steadfast in saying the most important piece is Allen, not the 56.5% of his targets that exited during the offseason. Instead of Brady or the revamped receiving corps, the success of the offense now hinges squarely upon Allen’s right arm.
“Josh is going to be probably the spear — the tip of the spear — who’s going to kind of marry along with him the way some of these other guys did,” Bills general manager Brandon Beane said.
The one area the Bills, including Beane, have stressed that Allen needs to improve is his penchant for turnovers. Allen threw a career-high 18 interceptions last season and has an NFL-worst 47 since 2021.
But how much do those interceptions matter?
In games Allen throws one interception, the outcome doesn’t change drastically from the game he throws none.
Allen averages 264.4 passing yards and 2.4 touchdowns in games he hasn’t thrown an interception since 2021, while the Bills score 30.8 points per game and are 14-3. When he’s thrown one interception in a game, Allen averages 257 yards and 1.9 touchdowns, while the Bills put up 27.6 points per game with a 15-7 record.
In the 12 games Allen’s thrown at least two picks during that span, the Bills are 6-6 while averaging 23.3 points per game. Allen’s overall numbers also take a hit, with his passing yards dropping to 237.3 and his touchdowns per game dipping to 1.5.
After committing one red-zone turnover (no interceptions) in his first 54 games, Allen has nine in the last 40, including eight interceptions. But the Bills are still 7-2 in the games he commits a turnover in the red zone.
Thirty-one of Allen’s 54 turnovers since 2021 have come in Buffalo territory and opponents have converted those into points 22 times for 116 points. But opponents scored following 12 of 21 turnovers last year and 28 of 54 times over the previous three seasons overall.
Allen was playing with a sore shoulder last season and he admitted the pain affected his throwing motion, which was something he was trying to correct during the offseason.
“Just seeing what we can tighten up on and improve on and just having that in the back of our mind,” Allen said. “So when we’re doing our individual work, when we’re inside the building, making sure that we’re doing everything we need to do and I need to do to be as clean as possible. If you can deliver the ball as consistently as possible it takes less to think about and then you can focus more on what the defense is presenting.”
Is Trubisky’s signing necessary?
Allen’s injuries the last two seasons clearly made the Bills want to shore up the back-up quarterback job, signing Mitchell Trubisky to a two-year contract to replace last year’s No. 2 Kyle Allen.
It’s still a curious decision because the Bills decided that a hurt Allen was better than the alternative options on the roster. Even when they paid veteran Case Keenum $3.5 million in 2022, the Bills felt Allen was the better option after injuring his throwing elbow.
Kyle Allen was unimpressive during training camp and the preseason last year, making just a smidge more than the veteran minimum. Trubisky, who was Buffalo’s backup in 2021, is set to make $2 million after being usurped by Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph as Pittsburgh’s starter the last two seasons.
NOTES: The NFL announced the Bills would have a joint practice with the Steelers on Aug. 15-16 ahead of their preseason game Aug. 17 in Pittsburgh. The practices will not be open to the general public.