Brandon Beane doesn’t believe salary cap problems will keep the Buffalo Bills from taking another swing at a Super Bowl run.
For the second consecutive offseason, Beane has a lot of holes to fill and little money to make it happen. The Bills general manager was able to restructure contracts to steer away from purging the roster, while filling gaps through the draft and a host of one-year free agent deals.
Beane acknowledged the Bills will be “shopping in the same aisles” as last season, which was good enough to get them a hair from the AFC championship game while winning a fourth consecutive AFC East championship.
But there is no question Buffalo’s roster is aging and a few of the key pieces over the last four years may no longer be on the roster next season with 22 unrestricted free agents. And because the Bills are currently projected to be more than $40 million over the salary cap for 2024, it might mean hacking off parts of the roster to save money.
Here are the areas that need to be addressed in the offseason:
Retooling the passing game
The Bills have decided to put the future of the offense in the hands of Joe Brady on a full-time basis. Brady did a swell job giving a stagnant offense a jolt after replacing Ken Dorsey after 10 games.
Brady’s rushing attack averaged nearly 45 yards more per game, but the passing attack declined 32 yards per game, while quarterback Josh Allen threw nine fewer touchdowns in nine games. That coincided with a dramatic drop in production by wide receiver Stefon Diggs.
Diggs made 70 receptions for 834 yards and seven receptions in the first nine games, but his production was nearly sliced in half over the last 10, posting 47 grabs for 422 yards and one score. He had 100 yards in five of the first six games, but none over the last 13, finishing with less than 50 seven times during that stretch.
His targets also went from 10.8 to eight per game under Brady and his average depth per target went from 10.6 — his career average is 10.8 — to 9.6, meaning he wasn’t stretch the field as frequently.
Diggs will be 31 by time 2024 ends and he’s locked into the Bills for the next two seasons with a dead cap hit of $27.854 million in 2024 and $27.354 in 2025 so they have to find a way to get him more involved.
“He’s a No. 1 receiver, I firmly believe that, not wavering off of that,” Beane said. “We have to continue to put weapons out there to keep teams from bracketing him or locking him down in different ways to take him away. They know you are going to want him. Stef can still play. … He’s super competitive, he’s gonna work his tail off this offseason.”
Taking the pressure off Diggs would also help, which likely means drafting a receiver in the first two rounds, and perhaps another in the fourth round. It would add depth in the short term and a cost-efficient long-term solution to replace Diggs.
The Bills could try to bring back Gabe Davis — who went without a catch four times in the last two months of the regular season — but he may be out of their price range, with Spotrac.com projecting him to command a market value of $13.6 million per year in free agency. Trent Sherfield’s deal is up, while Deonte Harty may be a cap casualty after neither fit in consistently this season.
The good news is that there is a lot of receiver talent in the draft this season. A lot will change after the Senior Bowl this week and the NFL combine in March, but it doesn’t seem likely the big-time receivers like Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr., Washington’s Rome Odunze or LSU’s Malik Nabers will fall to the Bills at No. 27 and they can’t afford to forfeit draft assets to trade into the top-10 or 15 with limited cap space.
But CBS projects nine receivers in the top-50 at the moment, with the best potential player to drop to the Bills being Florida State’s Keon Coleman as the No. 20 overall prospect. The Bills also need help on the defensive line, so they don’t have to reach for a receiver in the first round, since 33 of the top-50 receiving leaders this season weren’t first-round picks.
Making the offense easier for Allen
Brady also needs to make the offense easier for Allen to operate this season. His usage rate wasn’t any different than the other top quarterbacks in the league, but the Bills far too often wasted first and second downs, forcing Allen to make a play on third down.
In Brady’s nine games, the Bills faced 124 third downs and because they averaged 7 yards to gain, Allen threw or ran on 110 of them, including all 10 third downs against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 16. Creating easier throws on first and second down makes third down more manageable with a run by James Cook or a quick pass for Allen.
They can do so by finding more ways to scheme players like Diggs open. The Bills are currently asking receivers to beat their man or find an open hole in the zone solely through route-running too much. Ever wonder why Travis Kelce is so wide open all the time even though everyone knows that’s where the Chiefs want to throw? They find mismatches and run plays to get him open.
Brady tried to play the matchup game, but not always efficiently. He used guard David Edwards heavily as a tight end — 44 times in two playoff games — with limited success. Edwards never went out for a pass and defenses could predict what was coming.
It also took two standout tight ends whom the Bills invested a lot of capital in off the field too frequently. Early in the season, the Bills used rookie Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox together frequently, but due to injuries, they gradually returned to more one-tight end looks.
Beane insisted Kincaid was more of a receiver like Kelce, but they lined him up inline often. Kincaid set a Bills record for a tight end with 73 receptions, while Knox still has three years left on his four-year, $52 million extension. Taking them off the field doesn’t make sense financially, nor from a standpoint of removing one of Allen’s weapons for a player who isn’t a threat to catch the ball.
“I don’t think they have the same skill set,” Beane said. “Dawson is a unique player and he’s got some straight-line speed, yet he’s also a gritty, tough blocker. He adds an element of physicality. Dalton tries to play physical, he’s not as developed physically and lacks the play strength that Dawson plays with. But I would see both those guys helping us going forward. And again, giving Joe various options, depending on who you’re playing. There’s gonna be some games where (two tight ends) are better than (one) or maybe even (three) and maybe (two running backs and one tight end).”
Sean McDermott must adjust to a changing NFL
The Bills are barren at defensive tackle, with Ed Oliver the lone interior defensive lineman on the roster. Beane wanted to add one in the draft last season but wasn’t comfortable with any available when they picked.
With Greg Rousseau, Von Miller and Kingsley Jonathan the lone edge rushers left on the roster, the Bills will need to make additions there, too. And safety is also a position of concern. Micah Hyde is a free agent and contemplating retirement, while Taylor Rapp is a free agent and Jordan Poyer will be 33 with one year left on his contract.
All of those positions will likely be addressed in the draft, potentially in the first four rounds. But whoever is calling the signals will have to adjust. McDermott hasn’t committed to calling plays again, but the Bills interviewed former Eagles defensive coordinator Sean Desai and defensive line coach Eric Washington left to be the defensive coordinator in Chicago.
Whether it’s McDermott or a new hire, it’s certain they will be running McDermott’s scheme as Leslie Frazier did for six years. The Bills were on the cutting edge in terms of playing smaller personnel to adapt to the league’s increase in passing.
Slot cornerback Taron Johnson has become like a third linebacker and after Matt Milano was injured, Poyer became a linebacker on passing downs, as the Bills played five or more defensive backs on 97.8% of defensive snaps.
Opponents are starting to notice and take advantage of Buffalo’s lack of size. In the AFC divisional round, the Chiefs used at least two tights on 38 of 50 snaps, including three tight ends on eight.
Kansas City ran for 95 of its 146 yards (on 7.9 yards per carry) with at least two tight ends on the field, while the Bills played five defensive backs. Expect teams to use the same strategy frequently next season until they find a way to adjust.
With Milano returning from injury and Terrel Bernard suited to play in space, the Bills have two solid cover linebackers. If they can add a third, or better yet, develop rookie Dorian Williams into one, they can play bigger more often without losing much in coverage.
Williams struggled in limited chances as an every-down linebacker, but excelled as a spy against running quarterbacks and is an explosive tackler in space. If the Bills can get him to play more controlled and understand the defense, he could be a critical piece moving forward.
“The game is going to slow down for him. And so he is a fast, explosive player,” Beane said. “I think Sean and (linebackers coach) Bobby Babich decided that the best thing was to do was to give him certain assignments in games, certain packages and that way he can play to his strengths.”