ORCHARD PARK — The Buffalo Bills have seen worse.
Sitting at 7-4 with six games to play isn’t a terrible position to be in. Mathematically, a sixth consecutive AFC East championship isn’t out of the question, nor is the No. 1 seed in the conference.
The resurgent New England Patriots, who are an NFL-best 10-2, currently hold both of those spots. And the teams are set for a rematch Dec. 14.
It could be worse.
The Bills were 6-6 after an overtime loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on Thanksgiving weekend 2023 and were three games behind the Miami Dolphins. Buffalo won its last five games and Miami dropped three of its last five.
Buffalo was 7-6 after consecutive gut-wrenching losses and had dropped four of six, including an inexplicable 9-6 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars — the league’s worst team — and a 26-point drubbing from the Indianapolis Colts at home. The Bills rattled off four straight to close the season.
But somehow their current predicament seems worse, despite clinging to the AFC’s final playoff spot. The Bills are 3-4 after starting 4-0 and have games against three teams over .500, along with a tilt against the Cincinnati Bengals, who now have quarterback Joe Burrow back from a turf toe injury and a Cleveland Browns team with a ferocious defense.
The calendar is also approaching December, when the Bills have been superb. Since 2020, the Bills are 23-4 in December and January regular-season games, compared to 29-18 in October and November.
“Extremely high sense of urgency,” Bills quarterback Josh Allen said. “We understand where we’re at. At the same time, we have full confidence in ourselves, but it ultimately comes down to executing on gamedays. We’ve had some good, had some bad throughout the year. But there are a lot of teams that are wishing they were 7-4 and in the spot we are.”
Perhaps this season feels more dire because of the long list of injuries that have plagued the team, particularly on defense. They have two defensive tackles on injured reserve and two defensive ends out for the season and they are staring at playing the Pittsburgh Steelers — who have one of the NFL’s best pass rushes — without their starting offensive tackles.
But it mostly feels different because of Buffalo’s offensive struggles and a bizarrely average passing attack. Their superhuman MVP quarterback who has so often saved them from despair has seemed mortal more times than not this season.
An offense that surpassed 30 points in each of the first four games has failed to score 20 more times than it’s scored 30 over the last seven games, including two of the last three. That hasn’t happened since 2021.
Not only did the Bills fail to hit the 20-point plateau, but they lost by double-digits to the sub-.500 Dolphins and Falcons. But winning cures a lot of concerns.
“We’ve played a lot of great defenses and we still got to play a lot more great defenses on the road,” Bills center Connor McGovern said. “We didn’t have the showing we wanted (in Houston), but now we’ve had the extra couple days to rest up. Now we can just really attack them and we can prove that we’re a great offense and get things rolling again.”
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The Steelers are getting starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers back after missing last week with a broken left wrist. The Bills have had remarkable success against one of the greatest quarterbacks in league history, going 4-2, including 3-1 under coach Sean McDermott.
But the Bills have also struggled against quarterbacks with a quick trigger. Rodgers’ time from snap to throw is 2.64 seconds, second-fastest in the NFL according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
The Bills are 12-5 against quarterbacks who released the ball in 2.64 seconds or faster since 2023, including 2-2 this season. Quarterbacks have completed 69.2% of their passes, up five points from those who held the ball longer, while averaging a sack fewer per game.
In general, the pass rush has been feast or famine against those quarterbacks. The Bills recorded 10 sacks against the Panthers and Saints, but none against the Dolphins and Texans.
The Bills were able to sack Rodgers six times in two games with the Jets last year, but he’s faced the lowest pressure rate in the league this season 22.9% and has only been sacked 19 times.
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The Bills will be missing both starting offensive tackles, with Spencer Brown (left shoulder) and Dion Dawkins (concussion) ruled out. Ryan Van Demark likely slides in at left tackle in place of Dawkins, but right tackle is more mysterious.
Tylan Grable is going to be listed as questionable as he prepares to come off injured reserve with a concussion sustained during the preseason. Asking Grable to start — after his first week of practice in three months — against Pittsburgh’s edge tandem of T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith is tough, so it wouldn’t be surprising if utility man Alec Anderson started.
It could all change the offensive game plan because while the Steelers rank among the league’s leaders in sacks, they also give up over 250 passing yards per game. A heavy-blitzing defense facing two backup tackles may move the Bills toward a run-first approach.
“It’s going to be a fight, for sure,” Anderson said. “I love the physical games. I’m kind of looking forward to having the opportunity to put my best foot forward and be as physical as I can.”
Linebacker Terrel Bernard (elbow) was also been ruled out. The Bills signed wide receiver Gabriel Davis from the practice squad and placed Curtis Samuel on injured reserve with elbow and knee injuries.