ORCHARD PARK — After the war drum stops beating and the fans stop chanting is when Arrowhead gets scariest. When the noise stops pulsating through your brain, that means Patrick Mahomes has the ball.
Coming up short against the Kansas City Chiefs by a combined 27 points — including an 18-point loss in the 2020 AFC championship game — has fueled all of the personnel moves by the Buffalo Bills since.
In the immediate aftermath, the Bills used their top-two draft picks on defensive ends — Greg Rousseau and Boogie Basham — and when 13 seconds wasn’t enough to close out the Chiefs in the playoffs, they reached for cornerback Kaiir Elam in the first round and invested nearly $150 million in free-agent defensive linemen, including $120 million on future Hall of Famer Von Miller.
And, still, nobody has found a solution to stop the Chiefs’ two-time MVP quarterback.
The Bills have tried blitzing him, they’ve tried barely blitzing him at all. But Mahomes has still averaged 307.6 yards per game, with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions in five career games against Buffalo.
But Tyreek Hill torments the Bills in a different uniform now and Kansas City has a whole new crop of receivers — although Buffalo killer Travis Kelce is still among the best tight ends in the NFL — and the Chiefs are averaging 22.9 points per game, the lowest total by nearly five points since Mahomes became the starter in 2018.
On paper it seems like Kansas City is ripe, having lost two of its last three games. But any time Mahomes has the ball, he’s still the scariest offensive player in the NFL, not to mention a Bills defense that still can’t seem to close out games.
“This is a dynamic offense and whenever you have (coach) Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, and Kelce, and then you add (running back Isaiah Pacheco) back there and the running back corps that they have, it’s a dynamic offense so we have to prepare that way,” Bills coach Sean McDermott said.
The Bills found some success against Mahomes by not sending more than four pass rushers and playing a conservative shell defense, forcing him to be patient throughout the game by limiting coveted shots downfield. But that also means conceding yards in the name of condensing the field in the red zone to prevent touchdowns.
Buffalo has only blitzed Mahomes 10 times once, ironically in a 24-20 win last season, a year in which it only blitzed 19.4% of the time. According to Pro Football Reference, Bills have blitzed on 23.2% of dropbacks and have been greeted with moderate success this season.
The Bills have blitzed 10 times in six games, with a 3-3 record, while giving up fewer points, generating three more sacks and allowing 78 fewer yards rushing. But they have also given up nearly 400 more yards passing, while McDermott calling all-out blitzes cost them late in games against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Denver Broncos and the game-winning overtime score against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Blitzing Mahomes frequently may not be a wise decision, because he’s proven to be more successful against five or more rushers. Mahomes has been blitzed at least 10 times in 34 career games and averages 142.6 more yards — 69 more air yards per game — and 1.6 more touchdowns per game.
When Mahomes does have more time to throw, he is slightly less likely to get sacked. But he also has the ability to extend plays with his legs and is No. 2 in the NFL with 39 scrambles and is third this season with 8.9 yards per scramble among quarterbacks with a minimum of 150 passing attempts.
Mahomes has gained 184 yards through scrambles in five career games against the Bills, which means maintaining rush lanes is critical. Against the Eagles, the Bills were sound in the first half, with defensive tackles looping outside when an edge rusher made an inside move.
That held Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts to 4 of 11 passing and 22 yards rushing on seven attempts in the first half, with defensive tackle Linval Joseph recording a sack on such a play. But those rushing lanes collapsed in the second half and Hurts had 210 of his 265 total yards.
“It’s a really good movement for us and it really messes up messes up quarterbacks,” Rousseau said. “Once you make an inside move you’re pretty much crossing (the quarterback’s) line of vision, so they’re automatically going back and not really looking downfield anymore.”
Bills players are torn on whether it’s easier to play against a quarterback with a quick release, as opposed to a player like Mahomes who can extend plays. Rousseau prefers the quarterback who holds the ball because it elongates chances to make a play, while Leonard Floyd likes stationary quarterbacks and cornerback Dane Jackson couldn’t decide between the two.
Blitz or not, PFR says Mahomes is averaging 2.5 seconds from snap to throw or when the pocket collapses and he’s been sacked on less than 4% of his career dropbacks. Against the Bills, Mahomes has been pressured 31 times, hit 19 times and sacked nine times in 211 dropbacks, so rushing him becomes a battle of stamina between defensive backs and receivers and offensive and defensive linemen.
“It’s a battle of endurance and just trusting you will have a chance to get there,” Floyd said. “Sometimes it’ll feel like you won’t have a chance to get there by the way (Mahomes) moves and goes through the pocket. You just have to trust yourself, knowing there’s time to get to him.”
One guarantee, though, is that Mahomes is eventually going to make a big play. The Chiefs average 29.6 points per game with Mahomes as the start and he’s been held to single digits 11 times in 106 games — regular season and playoffs — although five have come this season.
“It’s hard in the league, especially as a (defensive back),” Jackson said. “You wish you could make every single play, but at the same time, you have to realize they’re in the league, too. They just get paid just like you do. … Plays are going to be made, plays are going to be made and you just have to keep going.”
NOTES: DE Von Miller returned to practice Thursday after receiving veteran rest Wednesday. … CB Kaiir Elam (ankle), DE Leonard Floyd (wrist), CB Dane Jackson (concussion), TE Dalton Kincaid (thumb), TE Dawson Knox (wrist) and S Taylor Rapp (neck) were all full participants.