Gloucester’s Robert “Bob” Carp, a self-proclaimed political junkie, has recently published his latest book, “Quantifying Democracy — Chaos Theory and the Science of Election Forecasting,” which has submitted for consideration for the 2026 Pulitzer Prize in the general nonfiction category.
Carp’s goal in the book is to offer readers a perspective on the “mathematical dynamics of momentum in political landscapes,” and illustrate how even the smallest choices related to campaign issues can influence the biggest elections.
The book details how chaos theory can transform “our understanding of democracy and the unpredictable nature of electoral outcomes,” noted Carp, a Harvard-trained government scientist who also holds a law degree.
“I love watching elections and I’m really intrigued about polling because polling translates into how money is spent,” he said in a recent interview. “In the last election, Kamala (Harris) spent $2 billion to lose decisively.
“It makes me question how did they weigh different elements because when watching particular pollsters speak in different states in which she was leading, it appeared to be a deterrent to voters that their vote didn’t matter. But these pollsters were dramatically wrong. There is always a margin of error and I think that margin is grossly understated.”
Carp explores some of the pitfalls of current polling practices and ways that chaos theory can serve as a weapon for election interference and manipulation.
“Candidates seeking victory in today’s volatile political climate will benefit from the innovative strategies highlighted in the book, arming them with the knowledge to disrupt predictability and connect with voters on a deeper level,” according to a press release.
“Additionally, the author discusses the role of artificial intelligence in predicting voter trends, demonstrating its potential to enhance campaign strategies and outcomes.”
Carp holds a master’s degree in government. He is a former member of the Dean’s Council of the Kennedy School of Government; he attended the World Economic Forum in Davos as a guest of the school. A lifelong entrepreneur, Carp has operated and sold more than 20 companies during his career.
An author for a number of years, most of his books focus on niche topics, such as cryptocurrency, artificial intelligence for lawyers, and the cannabis business. But he recently moved into a lifelong passion of analyzing political movements and election forecasting.
In 2021, he wrote his first book in the realm of politics, titled “How Joe Biden Can Rescue America From Itself,” a book he described as a blueprint for what Biden was facing, and how it seemed to unravel as his term progressed.
This latest book features case studies on more recent events, including the Harris-Trump election, and the rise of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Zohran Mandami, whom he refers to as “Disruption in Action.”
“Chaos theory is the answer to understanding what are usually perceived as random, unrelated patterns,” Carp said. “In today’s world, we are used to linear events that are aligned to an action followed by a reaction. In politics, there are major topics — like immigration or the economy — that are triggers for solidifying voting blocks.
“In theory, this will polarize a large number of voters to specific candidates that either support or oppose particular views, and with the proper combination of favorable opinions generated by candidates that will align with the will of any particular voter, they stand a greater chance of finding a base, and then building on it.”
In this book, Carp wants to share the potential for candidates to learn how to weigh specific elements of their campaign — such as their views on the economy, foreign policy, taxes etc. — to create messages based on a weight assigned to each category.
“Chaos theory can help provide a well constructed probability to help politicians tailor their messages, and provide guidance on how to spend marketing money to reach the most likely audience in any particular demographic,” he wrote.
The book concludes on a positive note.
“The journey toward enhancing electoral integrity is fraught with challenges,” Carp wrote. “But it is also filled with opportunities for growth and improvement.”
Entries for 2026 Pulitzer Prize in the general nonfiction category close this month; the winner will be announced in May.
Gail McCarthy may be contacted at 978-675-2706, or gmccarthy@northofboston.com.