Is your mock draft set?
In recent years, the popularity of NFL mock drafts has surged. It’s almost becoming pre-draft ritual in the realm of filling out a March Madness bracket, even to the point that many major media outlets have created mock draft simulators to allow fans to step into the shoes of an NFL general manager. But just like March Madness, the accuracy of hitting picks on mock draft is awfully low.
Draft analysts who craft mock drafts typically despise the process because it’s guesswork, but they produce them because NFL fans gobble them up. The idea of predicting who their favorite team will add to the roster is tantalizing.
While it might be hard to trust a mock draft, especially when a different player is picked by the same analyst in five different mocks. But they do serve a purpose, as even NFL general managers conduct them with their scouts prior to the draft, only with a little more intel.
ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. hit the first pick — Bryce Young going No. 1 overall — in his final 2023 mock draft, but missed on the remaining 30. But he still had seven of the top-10 and 26 out of 31 eventual first-round picks, they just didn’t land where he anticipated.
NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah, a former scout, hit on six of 31 picks last year, but six out of the top-10 and 25 of the 31 eventual first-round picks.
“Our board is pretty well set, there’s still some conversations. we have to go through some mocks, which could tweak a guy where or there,” Bills general manager Brandon Beane said Thursday. “But you’re just kind of reading the board. And if there’s guys sticking out and you want to use an asset to go get it, you do it.”
Who the Buffalo Bills are targeting is a major mystery, but it has been for the last three seasons. Receiver has been the most common choice in mocks, even before the Bills traded Stefon Diggs earlier this month.
The two most common names tied to the Bills have been LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr. and Texas’ Adonai Mitchell. But Thomas has rarely been mocked to the Bills since his terrific performance at the NFL scouting combine in February and his separated himself as the No. 4 receiver in the draft.
Thomas is considered by many to be out of reach for the Bills at No. 28, which has allowed Mitchell’s name to heat up, barring a trade. Between CBS, ESPN and NFL.com, Mitchell has been mocked to the Bills 20 times over the last two months and seven of eight analysts for CBS currently have him going to Buffalo.
It makes sense given Mitchell is viewed as a borderline late first-rounder or early second-rounder. That’s why fellow Texas receiver Xavier Worthy has been another recently-used option for the Bills in mocks, going six times in the last two months, but it may not mean much.
After Tre’Davious White tore his ACL midway through 2021 and Levi Wallace departed in free agency, the assumption was the Bills needed a cornerback in 2022. They also had a need at running back to pair with Devin Singletary, who was entering the final year of his rookie year.
So the most common name tied to the Bills in mock drafts was running back Breece Hall, who was picked to fall to Buffalo eight times by ESPN and NFL.com in the final month before the draft. Cornerbacks were still a common fit, but Kiper was the lone person to pick Kaiir Elam for the Bills, doing so in his final mock that year.
Most analysts felt the Bills would draft a linebacker after losing Tremaine Edmunds in free agency or a wide receiver. None of the major outlets ever connected the dots between the Bills and tight end Dalton Kincaid.
Of course, the Detroit Lions selected the top linebacker in the draft, Jack Campbell, nine spots before the Bills were slated to pick, while the top-four receivers were all taken consecutively from No. 20 to No. 23.
It’s fair to wonder if Kincaid would have been Buffalo’s pick if any of the four receivers were still on the board, even if Beane still traded from No. 27 to No. 25. But quarterback Josh Allen was high on Kincaid and detailed last week his own Kevin Costner Draft Day moment.
“Last year, draft day, I sent Beane a text that said, ‘Dalton Kincaid,’” Allen said. “That’s all I said. Felt like that Draft Day moment when Kevin, was it Kevin Costner? Kevin Costner opens his thing and it says ‘Vontae Mack no matter what.’ It was Dalton Kincaid, no matter what, last year. So, I’d like to think that I have some input in who we get to pick, but honestly, I really don’t.”
Is second better than first?
Without Diggs and Gabe Davis on the roster, receiver seems like the logical choice for the Bills, and while they have been actively searching for one throughout the draft process, Beane has been firm that the team doesn’t have any glaring holes.
It seems necessary that the Bills take a receiver in the first or second round, especially since they enter the draft without a third-round choice. The question is where they decide to pull the trigger.
Beane seems amiable to trading back, but he’s never done it in the first round in his six drafts with the Bills and he’s traded up in three of them. Plus, 33 of the top-50 receivers were not first-round picks last season.
And while the second round has produced five Pro Bowlers, compared to three in the first round over a five-year stretch from 2018-2022, teams are more likely to find a top-notch receiver in the first round.
Despite 32 receivers being taken in the second round and 21 in the first round during that span, the first-rounders have produced 11 1,000-yard receivers — two more than the second rounders — and 28 total 1,000-yard seasons, compared to 16 by the second rounders.
Trading for a receiver?
The Bills could also bypass taking a receiver in the first or second round and trade for a veteran receiver just like they did with Diggs in 2020.
Cincinnati Bengals receiver Tee Higgins has requested a trade after extension negotiations hit a wall after being franchise tagged, while San Francisco 49ers receiver Brandon Aiyuk has been rumored to be on the move entering the final year of his rookie contract. The problem for the Bills, in both instances is that they would have to find room within the salary cap as Higgins ($21.816 million) and Aiyuk ($14.1 million) make far more than the $2.898 million Buffalo currently has available.
Beane is creative in managing the cap, so it’s not out of the question, but it will come down to whether the Bills want to win immediately or plan for the future. Trading for an established commodity is safer than the unknown of the draft, but also comes with a bigger price tag.
Seven receivers have been traded for a first-round pick since 2018 and they’ve averaged 91.6 catches, 1,320 yards and 8.1 touchdowns in their first seasons. And while their second seasons were still productive (82.1 receptions, 1,102.1 yards and 7.3 touchdowns), the decline is already noticeable.
While six of the seven notched 1,000 yards in their first seasons, only five first-round picks did so as rookies from 2018-2022. Five of the seven veterans managed 1,000 yards in their second seasons, while eight of the first-round picks did hit 1,000 and seven others failed to reach 500 in their second seasons.
And although only one of 12 receivers traded for a first round pick between 2000-2020 last longer than four years with the team that acquired them, 43 of the 94 receivers taken between 2000-2022 didn’t last longer than four seasons with the team that drafted them, either through a trade or release.
It all comes down to whether the Bills likely want to spend a first-round pick and pay a hefty extension or take a gamble on the draft.