The Buffalo Bills are no strangers to running back drama. It’s just been a while.
O.J. Simpson held out for 193 days before signing his rookie contract in 1969. Joe Cribbs, after leading the Bills in rushing from 1980-1983, jumped to the USFL’s Birmingham Stallions amid a contract dispute in 1984.
Thurman Thomas missed nearly all of training camp in 1990 until inking a new deal. Willis McGahee didn’t sign his rookie deal in 2003 until midway through training camp and then made disparaging remarks about Buffalo in 2006, resulting in a trade to Baltimore heading into the final year of his deal.
Let’s also not forget the whole Marshawn Lynch saga. But the last contract holdout for the Bills was running back C.J. Spiller, who signed in early August after being the ninth pick in the 2010 NFL draft, the last year until the NFLPA agreed to set rookie wage scales.
Jump ahead to today, as running back James Cook may be the franchise’s first contract holdout in 15 years. Cook, who is heading into the final year of his rookie contract, wants a new deal in the neighborhood of $15 million per year.
Cook has not reported to any voluntary workouts or minicamps and ESPN’s Adam Schefter said Saturday that the two sides are disconnected. He doesn’t expect Cook to report for the start of mandatory minicamp Tuesday, when the Bills can fine him for not practicing.
While Cook has remained relatively quiet aside from a smattering of cryptic social media posts, the Bills have mostly been gracious toward his contract dispute. Although general manager Brandon Beane made it public in March that they were not in the same ballpark during negotiations, he also expressed no ill will to the 2022 second-round pick.
Bills coach Sean McDermott and quarterback Josh Allen offered similar remarks.
“I think you guys know by now how I feel about Jimbo,” offensive coordinator Joe Brady said. “… Obviously he was huge for us last year and I’m excited when we’re able to get with him. I obviously love Jimbo, but it’s just like anyone else, when someone’s not here, it’s a great opportunity for the guys that are here.”
Pros
The great debate throughout the offseason has been whether the Bills truly need Cook to attain their Super Bowl aspirations. Running back value has been diminished over the last decade and the Bills have not placed a high premium on the position under Beane and McDermott.
However Brady’s affection for Cook isn’t just talk. Since Brady became offensive coordinator 10 games into 2023, Cook’s usage has skyrocketed, resulting in back-to-back Pro Bowl appearances.
Cook has played 28 games apiece (including the playoffs) under Brady and predecessor Ken Dorsey. He’s got nearly 200 more carries and 800 yards under Brady, while also having over 200 more total touches, 900 more yards and 19 more touchdowns.
Last season Cook took his game to another level, tying Simpson’s single-season franchise record with 16 rushing touchdowns after having four in his first two seasons combined. Cook ranks eighth in rushing the past two seasons.
The Bills are also better with Cook on the field, averaging 6.3 yards per play with him in the game and 5.7 when he’s out. Cook also happens to be one of Buffalo’s few home-run hitters, tying Keon Coleman for the team’s most plays of at least 40 years (four) last year.
Cons
The problem for Cook is that for all his success, the Bills haven’t shown an urgency to keep him on the field during critical situations. Cook was one of two players (along with Tampa Bay’s Bucky Irving), to have 1,000 yards rushing and play fewer than 50% of the offensive snaps last year.
Although Cook made strides in short-yardage areas, with 12 of his 16 touchdowns coming within 10 yards of the goal line after having just four such plays in his first two seasons, he only had four carries on third and fourth downs with 2 yards or fewer to go.
In fact, Cook was hardly on the field at all on third and fourth down last season. Of the team’s 254 third and fourth down attempts, Cook was on the field for just 32 of them and nine of those plays ended with the ball in Cook’s hands.
While Beane defended Cook’s pass protection issues at the NFL scouting combine, he was only on the field four times on third or fourth down with more than 5 yards to gain. Plus the Bills preferred to use Allen on quarterback sneaks on third and fourth down.
And with the game on the line, it made Cook expendable. The Bills had five games in 2024 in which they were tied or needed a score on their final possession. Cook played 16 of 40 games and had two touches for 11 yards.
By comparison, the four running backs — Philadelphia’s Saquon Barkley, Baltimore’s Derrick Henry, San Francisco’s Christian McCaffrey and Indianapolis’ Jonathan Taylor — averaging $14 million per year were all three-down players.
Barkley played 162 snaps on third and fourth down, while Taylor had 133. McCaffrey had 38 such snaps and only played in four games. And while Henry had 26 carries on those downs, Cook had five.
Bottom line
In short, the Bills wouldn’t be crazy if they let Cook hit the open market after the season. But they don’t have a surefire contingency plan right now.
Ray Davis showed promise as a rookie, but only played a quarter of the team’s snaps. And while Ty Johnson proved to be superb in passing situations — tying Cook with four 30-yard plays from scrimmage — he hasn’t shown capable of being a three-down back in the NFL.
Cook also has to know that a long-term holdout does nothing positive for his finances. The collective bargaining agreement has largely wiped out holdouts over the last decade.
If Cook doesn’t report to minicamp, he could lose up to $104,768. Training camp fines are $40,000 per day missed under the collective bargaining agreement, so if Cook decided to miss the St. John Fisher portion of camp, he could lose over $500,000 out of his $5.7 million salary due this year.
The Bills could place the franchise tag on Cook next year, which is projected to be $14.143 million and they could just complete a new deal for that money. Both sides might be wise to find a compromise.
Cook could take a two-year contract worth $25 million with heavy guarantees. Barkley, Henry, McCaffrey and Taylor average 70% of their contracts guaranteed and the Bills could boost Cook up to 80% or keep it at 70% and offer easily obtainable statistical incentive bonuses.
Either way, a holdout benefits no one.