HARRISBURG — Pennsylvania Treasurer Stacy Garrity immediately set her sights on Gov. Josh Shapiro in announcing her gubernatorial run on Monday, eschewing any reference to first having to win the Republican primary election.
Garrity is the presumed choice of the state Republican Party and, so far, is the only challenger to formally announce their candidacy for the 2026 election.
That reported early favor doesn’t sit well with state Sen. Doug Mastriano, the party’s nominee in 2022 who has expressed interest in again seeking election to the governor’s office. He said he expects the state party to endorse Garrity when they meet in September.
“We criticize the Democrats for what they did with (Kamala) Harris, elevating her without really a fair and honest primary. Are we any different in Pennsylvania? I don’t know what kind of stupid strategy is going on here,” Mastriano said Monday on The John Fredericks Show, just two hours after Garrity announced her campaign.
Mastriano amassed the fourth-highest vote total in Pennsylvania’s history of gubernatorial elections through a grassroots campaign rooted in the heart of the Make America Great Again movement.
But his 2.2 million votes paled in comparison to Shapiro, the Democratic nominee, who garnered more than 3 million votes, a record at the time, as he easily won the election. Garrity supplanted the record vote total last November as she retained the treasurer’s office with more than 3.5 million votes during a presidential cycle that saw record voter turnout.
Shapiro, the first-term Democratic incumbent, hasn’t declared his re-election campaign yet, but an announcement is expected amid conjecture about his interest in a run at The White House in 2028.
“They want to clear the field. They just don’t want to put their thumbs on the scale, they want to sit on the scale and tell you, ‘this is the pick, take it, like it or not, and we’re going to shove it down your throats,’” Mastriano said. “They’d rather lose a general election than let the people pick who’s running.”
Mastriano didn’t say whether he’d enter the primary race, though he did prefer that Garrity compete with him as a lieutenant governor candidate rather than the other way around. The only other big-name Republican who floated a run, U.S. Rep. Dan Meuser, said in July that he wouldn’t run despite having the support of President Donald Trump. Garrity herself is showcasing her connections to Trump in her early campaign media.
Though early in the cycle, the Republican field of a single candidate stands in stark contrast to the 2022 cycle when 16 candidates announced their intent to seek the party nomination. Nine candidates ultimately saw their names added to primary ballots, though two withdrew after ballots were printed.
Mastriano, who secured a late endorsement by Trump, cruised to a primary election victory by a margin greater than 2-to-1 over the next closest challenger, Lou Barletta.
During his interview on Monday, Mastriano leaned on that same margin in referencing a springtime poll that showed him leading Garrity. Though Mastriano didn’t identify the poll, POLITICO previously reported that he led Garrity by 21 points in a private poll obtained by the online news site.
However, Garrity is viewed as a more moderate choice who may fare better in 2026 with unaffiliated and undecided voters during midterm elections that generally result in poorer outcomes for the ruling party in The White House.
Chris Ellis, professor of political science at Bucknell University, said American politics has evolved to a point where party affiliation and ideology are growing more important than candidates themselves.
Supporters of Mastriano could feel alienated if the primary election isn’t competitive; however, Ellis said that Garrity would hold more appeal to the conservative voters than moderates, along the lines of Mitt Romney, for example.
“She’s close enough to them that I think she could probably make the case if she chooses,” Ellis said. “To win over the real skeptics she would want in a primary, she’ll probably say some things she’ll regret at the general election in November.”
That may be what Republican leaders hope to avoid in next year’s midterms with congressional elections and contests in the Pennsylvania House and Senate on the line down-ballot.
“We are so divided today, playing to the base will work for a primary, but won’t be as effective in a general. I have long argued that your opening salvo in a campaign predicts the rest of the operation. If that’s the case, then Garrity is going to spend a good deal of her time yelling about how Josh Shapiro sucks,” said Dr. Alison Dagnes, professor and chair of the Political Science Department at Shippensburg University.
“Again, that will work for the base, but those folks are predisposed to dislike Gov. Shapiro already. Winning a campaign means getting those who aren’t partisans, and these days that number is growing because Americans are getting sick of both parties,” Dagnes said.
Chris Borick, political science professor, Muhlenberg College, said Mastriano’s appeal is fervent only with his base. He doesn’t rise to the level of Trump in terms of affecting voter turnout, he said.
The Pennsylvania Republican Party has enjoyed gains in fundraising and voter registration, Borick said, but there are lingering fears that tepid turnout in a non-presidential year could cost them.
“I think the memory of 2022 is painful for a lot of Republicans. The idea that they’d go down the same path against Shapiro in a cycle that’s probably going to be tougher than 2022 and have lots of challenging races across the state, there’s no appetite for that among Republican leaders,” he said.