EDITOR’S NOTE: This is the fifth story in a series of previewing Buffalo Bills position groups ahead of training camp.
Here’s a spoiler: Dalton Kincaid is going to have an impressive training camp.
Kincaid was superb in his first two training camps because modern NFL camps are built for players like him to shine. The third-year tight end is a crisp route runner, he’s agile and he snags anything on target.
But the Buffalo Bills’ 2023 first-round pick needs to carry that into the regular season this year. Kincaid had one of the best rookie seasons for a tight end in NFL history, setting franchise records for receptions by a tight end and by a rookie (73).
A popular favorite to become Josh Allen’s favorite target following Stefon Diggs’ departure last year, Kincaid’s second season was marred by injuries. Kincaid missed four games last season and played the second half of the season with a torn PCL.
He had just 44 receptions for 448 yards and two touchdowns in 2024. And the last memory of Kincaid was a diving attempt to catch a ball that squirted through his arms on Buffalo’s final offensive play of the AFC championship game.
Already viewed by many as an easy scapegoat, Kincaid’s image was also altered when Bills brass made it public that they wanted him to get stronger during the offseason to endure the wear and tear of an NFL season. It was reason for some to think the team’s opinion of Kincaid somehow changed, causing general manager Brandon Beane to backtrack in his defense.
Whether Kincaid can develop into an elite tight end may be determined this year. But it’s already clear that Kincaid is a good receiving tight end who could emerge as Allen’s No. 1 option this season, especially after finishing second in targets despite injuries.
“Dalton was really more of an injury thing that he fought through and nothing more than that,” Beane said last month. “I felt like maybe I even probably was a little bit overcritical. I wasn’t trying to do that. Probably could have done a better job of saying that. They’re going to be physical, you’re battling an injury and you’re going to try and armour yourself a little bit more.”
Stone-cold truth
Kincaid isn’t a mauling blocker, he’s never going to be a mauler and the Bills never intended for him to be one, particularly since they drafted Jackson Hawes in the fifth round to do that. Their desire for him to get stronger is partly natural progression for a young player and to avoid nagging injuries that have bothered him early in his career.
He played through a back injury during his final year at Utah, missed a game as a rookie due to a concussion and played through a broken finger late in that season that impacted his role as a receiver and overall playing time.
After the 2023 draft, Beane indirectly compared Kincaid to Travis Kelce, who has carved a Hall of Fame career as essentially a big receiver. From a football perspective, Kincaid needs to improve in some of the areas Kelce is successful.
Kelce has 1,004 career receptions because he understands how to find holes in zone coverage. And more importantly, he knows how to operate in a scramble drill when Patrick Mahomes leaves the pocket.
At least once during every Kansas City Chiefs game, the television analyst muses why defenses don’t jam Kelce at the line of scrimmage. Bills linebacker Dorian Williams told GNN Sports last year the reason is that at 35, Kelce is more dangerous when plays break down than during his original route.
Some of that is created by innate football acumen. But even if Kincaid doesn’t possess that level of football intelligence, he can still improve his spatial awareness. That’s especially true because Kincaid is still in many ways a football infant, having played only one year of high school football.
It’s a role the Bills haven’t been able to fill since Cole Beasley left, but Kincaid is also a vertical threat and it showed in his usage last year. Kincaid’s average depth per target jumped from 6 yards to 7 ½, while his yards per catch jumped a full yard to 10.2.
Kincaid also tied Raiders rookie star Brock Bowers for the NFL lead for tight ends in targets beyond 20 yards (12). The problem was Kincaid caught just 58.7% of his total targets and just three beyond 20 yards.
A chunk of that was likely due to diminished mobility due to injury. Kincaid caught 80.2% of his targets in 2023 and he caught 14 of 20 targets beyond 20 yards over his final two seasons at Utah, both the most in the FBS.
Kincaid also needs to be a bigger red zone threat. Two touchdowns apiece in his first two seasons isn’t enough.
Training camp battle
The three tight ends Buffalo will keep is fairly obvious, with Hawes, Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Hawes’ job isn’t guaranteed, but likely. Plus fullback Reggie Gilliam is considered a hybrid tight end.
The one battle at the position might be for a spot on the practice squad. Zach Davidson held that role after rebounding from a season-ending knee injury before camp in 2023 and was the darling of training camp last year.
Undrafted free agent Keleki Latu might challenge Davidson for that spot. Davidson is super athletic and appeared in two games last year, but Latu possesses more upside as a blocker and special teams player.
The real area to watch is if the Bills can finally figure out how to keep Kincaid and Knox on the field together. Knox adds more in the running game and Kincaid a little more in the passing game, but when they are rotated in and out, the Bills are cutting usage in half for both.
Although they led the league in using a tight end and a sixth offensive lineman, the Bills were 28th in typical two-tight end sets (13.9%). When Kincaid was selected, Beane insisted it wouldn’t affect Knox’s playing time.
But when Kincaid missed a Week 6 game against the Giants in 2023, the Bills moved away from frequent two-tight end sets. And the experiment has mostly been scrapped since.