ORCHARD PARK — Tre’Davious White is getting well-deserved praise for tipping the AFC wild-card round-sealing interception to Cole Bishop.
But the unseen moment within the play is that if Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence held the ball any longer, Buffalo Bills defensive end Joey Bosa would have smacked him. Bosa didn’t have many bright spots in the game, but he was a major factor on the biggest play of the game.
It was also an example of the Bills defensive line not needing to generate sacks to have an impact. That’s going to be imperative in the AFC divisional round because the Denver Broncos don’t surrender many sacks. In fact, they tied for allowing the fewest sacks in the NFL (23).
Despite facing the NFL’s third-lowest pressure rate (27.7%), Broncos quarterback Bo Nix threw on the run at the highest rate ever tracked by NFL Next Gen Stats since 2016 (25.5%). He wants out of the pocket and the Bills cannot let him.
“Ideally, we’d love to have pocket push up the middle and collapse from the sides, where he can literally feel the walls closing in on him,” Bills defensive end A.J. Epenesa told GNN Sports. “… But there’s going to be some times where he may get out, he may escape. He has that capability. So that’s definitely something we’re harping on this week, something that we want to maybe set the trap for him and try to catch him.”
Nix getting out of the pocket on occasion is inevitable. He was 11th in the NFL in scrambles (35) and the Bills allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks (368) this season.
The Bills tend to play their defensive ends tight to the formation to provide a quicker path to the ball carrier. But that can also give the ball carrier an advantage in getting outside the contain, an area Bosa struggled in run defense against the Jaguars.
The Bills faced eight of the top-15 scramblers this season to mixed results, allowing 17 scrambles for 158 yards. While they have given up some runs — including scrambles of 10 and 18 yards to Lawrence — the Bills have also had impressive performances, such as those against Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes and Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts, who had one scramble apiece for a combined 9 yards.
Both Hurts and Mahomes were able to get out of the pocket in those games, but the Bills always had defenders in position to prevent them from running upfield when they did. Rather than having defenders forced to choose between covering a receiver or stopping the quarterback from running in a scramble drill, the Bills had players in position to make him throw.
Hurts and Mahomes combined to complete 46% of their passes against the Bills and were pressured 22 times.
“Sometimes it looks like he gets out the pocket, but when he goes backwards, that’s actually a plus for us,” Epenesa said. “… To a certain level, they can escape no matter what if they just go backwards, run around. It’s about minimizing damage and just knowing, mentally, what he likes to do, where he likes to escape. … Just kind of knowing the animal you’re hunting and what he wants to do.”
But for the most part, the Bills want Nix to live in the pocket and be uncomfortable while he’s there. Sacks may be at a premium against first-team All-Pros Garrett Bolles (left tackle) and right guard Quinn Meinerz, but the Bills want Nix to hold the ball in the pocket.
Nix, who led the NFL with 612 passing attempts, completed a league-high 77 hitch routes this season, completing 82.8% of them, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
Those are typically timing throws that require Nix to get the ball out quickly. Leading receiver Courtland Sutton is the prime target on those plays, which means the throws are likely going outside the numbers.
Nix threw outside the numbers at the fourth-highest rate in the league (43.6%), including 15 of his 25 touchdowns. Throws over the middle were far less successful for Nix and the Bills are one of the best teams in the league in defending the boundaries.
The Bills want the 6-foot-2 Nix throwing within the pocket, forcing him to navigate the long arms of their defensive linemen, seven of whom are over 6-4. Bills defensive linemen have combined for 17 batted passes and three interceptions this season.
“He’s great at using his legs and he’s great at getting out the pocket, extending plays,” said Bills rookie defensive tackle Deone Walker, who had four passes defensed during the regular season and another last week against Jacksonville. “We just got to keep him in the trap. We got to be on-point with our pass rush plan and just rush forwards.”