After a few years of predicting “championship or bust” for your Boston Celtics season, former area NBA scout Jeff Nelson has lowered the bar beginning tonight. A lot.
With the loss of Jayson Tatum for five months or more, and basically selling off important pieces — Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday, Al Horford and Luke Kornet — Nelson believes Celtics Nation could be in for a rude awakening.
As in, probably, chasing the last playoff spot.
“First off, they have some very good players, including Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and Payton Pritchard,” said Nelson. “And the coaching staff, led by Joe Mazzulla, are motivated people. That means something in the NBA.”
But so does talent. And so do the weaknesses, which Nelson believes has as much do about a height and defense.
“Look at the Houston Rockets,” said Nelson. “All of their starters will be 6-foot-8 or bigger. Kevin Durant will be a shooting guard at seven-feet ball. Who’s going to cover him on the Celtics?”
The height factor will be even a bigger void after misses on both sides. The Celtics, believes Nelson, don’t have a bona fide rebounder or rim protector.
“When this team was healthy the last two years, they have several guys that could rebound,” said Nelson. “Kornet wasn’t a star, but he helped out with his size. Al Horford is not the player he was five years ago, but he still could defend the center position. And Porzingis was sometimes as important bothering shots at the rim as he was making three-pointers. They don’t have anyone like on this team.”
Because of the changes to the roster, Nelson noticed the Celtics defensive structure doing an about-face this preseason, with more pressure on the ball, sometimes full-court.
“The last two years, each Celtics defender would stay with their man, not helping as much, knowing they have big guys at the rim to help,” said Nelson. “I noticed a lot more help-defense. That opens up outside shots, oftentimes open threes. I think they will live with that.”
Not having Tatum makes it even tougher, especially against the bigger stars like seven-footers Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid.
“You’re going to see on opening night that Sixers will go after Pritchard, now a starter playing more minutes, with Embiid on the pick and roll,” said Nelson. “Pritchard is 6-foot-1. White is 6-foot-4, a little taller. But that’s big mismatch, too. Pritchard’s strength is on offense. He’s an elite scorer. But he’s an average defender. That’s going to happen a lot.”
Nelson said while Chris Boucher, Luka Garza, Josh Minot and Anfernee Simons could all be decent adds, particularly on offense, none are noted for their play on defense.
As for scoring, Nelson believes a lot could come off their new, aggressive, pressure defense with an emphasis on ball movement and, of course, three-point shooting.
Nelson is wondering where Brown’s game goes this season without Tatum.
“Brown becomes the closer. He’s going to get the ball after a timeout,” said Nelson. “He’s been a secondary option in the past, but now he’s the guy. He has shown the ability to score, but he also needs to play a bigger role in play-making for others. That’s going to be interesting to watch. I think overall they will be an interesting team to watch.”
As for a playoff berth, with or without Tatum being close to his former self, the Celtics, believes Nelson, will be in a lot of close games, winning a few more than they lose.
If Tatum is back in March, as he expects, maybe the Celtics could push for a sixth spot.
“Me? I’m not bringing Tatum back,” said Nelson. “Let this team figure itself out and maybe they hit on a few of the new guys. Maybe White becomes even a better player. I believe there are several teams in the East that are better, never mind the West. I would be more focused on the next year and figuring out who stays and what their needs are to compete for a championship again.”
You can email Bill Burt at bburt@eagletribune.com.