The National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum will make its biggest announcement of the year Tuesday, Jan. 20, but one group of statisticians has given us a head start on answering the question if anyone will join Jeff Kent in the Class of 2026.
The voting thus far suggests Carlos Beltran and perhaps Andruw Jones will join Kent on stage at The Clark Sports Center in the town of Middlefield.
Statisticians Ryan Thibodaux, Anthony Calamas and Adam Dore run the Baseball Hall of Fame Tracker, an annual tool that collects all the publicly revealed votes for induction, puts them in a spread sheet, thus offering a regularly updated picture of the induction probabilities and impossibilities. Their post their work on Bluesky and on their own website, bbhoftracker.com.
As of 5 p.m., Friday Jan. 16, 206 voter ballots had been tallied, an estimated 48% of the expected total. With 75% of the votes from the Baseball Writers Association of America voters needed, only Beltran and Jones were in position to make the July stage.
Beltran, the outfielder from Puerto Rico, played 20 seasons with Kansas City, Houston, San Francisco, Saint Louis, New York Mets, New York Yankees and Texas. He had a career average of .279 with 2,725 hits, 435 home runs and 1,587 RBIs. He was a nine-time All-Star, won three Golden Goves and two Silver Slugger Awards, and was the American League Rookie of the Year in 1999. He won the Roberto Clemente Man of the Year Award in 2012.
Beltran won a World Series with the Astros in 2017, but was implicated in their sign stealing scandal, costing him a managerial job with the Mets in 2020.
While candidates deemed controversial can see late or unrevealed ballots break against them, Beltran has been named on 89.8% of the votes revealed so far, giving him a large cushion toward induction.
Jones, an outfielder from Curacao, played 17 seasons with Atlanta, Texas, Los Angeles, the Yankees and the Chicago White Sox. He was a 10-time Gold Glove Award winner, and won the Silver Slugger in 2005, when he led the National League in home runs and RBI. He hit .254 in his career, with 434 home runs, 1,933 hits and 1,289 RBI. He was considered the best defensive center fielder of an era and played in the 1996 World Series with the Braves. His 10 Golden Gloves is tied for third most, behind only Willie Mayes and Clemente.
As of Friday, Jones was named on 84% of the ballots. Based of previous years, his current total would indicate he will be close to the 75% line for induction, but could certainly make the cut Tuesday. On the ballot for his ninth try, if Jones does not get in this season, he would be favored to make it in his 10th and final attempt in 2027.
Jones and Beltran are the only 2026 candidates who look like possible 2026 inductees, but the ballot tracker does show some other interesting trends. Second baseman Chase Utley, in his fourth year on the ballot, is trending up. Utley, who won a World Series with Philadelphia in 2008, was named on 68.8% of the ballots as of Friday. Pitchers Felix Hernandez and Andy Petite also are rising in totals, with 57% and 58% of the vote as of Friday.
Manny Ramirez, in his final year on the ballot, seems destined to fall short. As of Friday, he was named on 40% of the ballots.