Gov. Kathleen C. Hochul has improved her lead against her challenger Bruce A. Blakeman, with the latest Siena Research Institute poll showing that Hochul leads Blakeman by 20 percentage points.
According to the details of their latest poll released on Thursday, Hochul is carrying a 43% positive, 44% negative favorability rating; a slight improvement from when Siena last ran a poll on the subject. Blakeman, who is unknown to a majority of voters, carries a 25% positive, 21% negative rating.
Hochul is also sporting a 53% positive, 42% negative job approval rating, also a slight improvement from the last time voters were asked in April.
“Hochul gained a little ground against Blakeman, who despite having his best ever favorability rating, still has a majority of voters not knowing him or not knowing enough about him to have an opinion. Her lead is now 20 points, up from 16 points in April,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said. “While 78% of Democrats favor Hochul and 79% of Republicans support Blakeman, independents now lean toward Hochul by five points, after tilting toward Blakeman by two points in April.”
Greenberg said that Hochul has a lead in the downstate suburbs of 11 points, and leads in New York City by three to one. Upstate, Hochul and Blakeman are pulling roughly equal support.
According to Siena’s poll, a majority of voters in New York are most concerned about the cost of living, with 77% reporting it’s one of their two top concerns this year. Housing costs are the second most commonly cited issue.
“Slightly fewer than one-third of New Yorkers think crime is one of the two top most important issues — only 11% say it’s the top issue — a far cry from the banner headline issue it was just a few years ago,” Greenberg said.
For years after the COVID-19 pandemic, crime was cited as the top political issue for the largest number of voters in Siena polls; in June 2023, about 61% of voters said they were either very or somewhat concerned they would be the victim of a crime. It was a top focus in Hochul’s policy agendas for 2023 and 2024.
The Siena poll issued this month also asked voters their opinion on a series of legislative achievements that made it through in Albany this year. Voters are broadly supportive of measures like a new statute that allows individuals to sue federal, state or local government officials who violate the U.S. Constitution with 71% support, a requirement that all students including undocumented immigrants be given equal access to public schooling with 69% support and a plan to send $100 to $200 “utility rebate checks” to households making less than $300,000 with 67% support.
A smaller proportion, 53% of voters, approve of the measure that bars any federal, state or local police officers or agents from covering their faces while working with the public, and an equal 53% of voters approve the “pied a terre” tax on luxury second homes in New York City that aren’t occupied by a city resident.
A plurality, 46% of voters, approve of the one-year ban on new data center projects, which was passed by the state legislature.
But voters are overwhelmingly not in support of one issue the legislature passed this year: the plan to change the state’s constitution to allow lawmakers to redraw New York’s congressional district maps in the middle of the decade and in a way that expressly benefits the party in charge of the redrawing — likely Democrats in this case.
The resolution needs to pass the state legislature again next year before it can go to voters, where a majority would need to say yes for the state constitution to be amended. According to Siena’s polling, only 21% of voters think it would be good for New York, with 44% disapproving of the measure. A larger proportion of voters of each party think it’s a bad idea than think it’s a good idea; 38% of Democrats, 54% of Republicans and 47% of independent voters think it would be bad for New York to approve that amendment.
“While these results will make Republican leaders happy, it shows that Democratic leaders have a lot of work to do between now and Election Day 2027 if they want to see this amendment approved by voters,” Greenberg said.
The Siena poll also asked about President Donald J. Trump, who has historically polled poorly in his former home state. Among New Yorkers, his approval and favorability ratings fell to their lowest-ever levels in April, and since then have hardly moved, with 65% of New Yorkers disapproving of his job performance and 63% viewing him generally unfavorably. As has been the case historically, the split is largely partisan; Democrats and independents broadly dislike Trump, Republicans broadly like him.
“Republicans overwhelmingly approve of the job Trump is doing in securing the border with Mexico, as do a plurality of independents, and even 29% of Democrats, giving Trump the only issue for which a plurality of voters approves,” Greenberg said. “Democrats and independents disapprove of his handling of wars, prices and pride in America, while at least two-thirds of Republicans approve of his handling of each of those.”
This poll was conducted between June 17 and 23, reaching 1,120 registered voters by landline, cellphone and an online polling platform. The margin of error for this poll is 3.6% in either direction.