The line of cars and trucks stretched Wednesday afternoon all the way to the edge of the property and then out into the road. A man was running traffic control, waving drivers along and directing the flow of cars.
These drivers were not lining up to buy concert tickets or the new viral Hermès dupe handbag from Walmart, but another, more humble, must-have: eggs.
Their destination was Hilliker’s Ranch Fresh Eggs, whose farmlands and cage-free aviaries, spread over 5 acres in western Lakeside, are now a hot spot for egg hunters.
“It started going nuts right before Christmas,” said Frank Hilliker, the company’s CEO.
Eggs, as anyone who has set foot in a grocery store recently will have noticed, are scarce again. And prices are up. Again.
Avian bird flu has been moving through California’s flocks, requiring millions of birds to be culled.
On San Diego County grocery shelves, the impact of the latest outbreak has been mixed: Prices at one East County grocery store, Frazier Farms, ranged from $3.99 to $9.89 a dozen on Wednesday. At San Diego Targets, online prices Thursday ran $5.99 for cage free to $10.79 a dozen for organic, pasture raised. Some stores have been out of eggs, while at others, supply has wavered or been stable.
The H5N1 virus, a highly contagious and lethal flu first detected in the U.S. in early 2022 that kills birds, sickens dairy cows and can sicken or kill humans, has recently hit California egg-laying hens especially hard. Egg production in the state was 167 million in November, down 87 million year over year, a 34% drop, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
That’s a far bigger percentage drop than in the U.S. as a whole, where egg production was down 4% year over year in November.
Prices have risen, in sync. Across California, the average price Friday for a dozen large eggs was almost $8.97, per the USDA. That’s higher than the national average of $5.99 and about 70% higher than the price in late November of $5.28.
In this dreary landscape, the 25,000 eggs or so Hilliker’s hens lay each day are an opportunity not just to sell eggs, but to give people access to eggs when they otherwise might not have it. It’s also a chance to maybe turn some of those newcomers into regulars, even when eggs are back at other stores.
“We really haven’t raised our egg prices too much,” said Hilliker, who co-owns the ranch with his sister, Lara Woliung. Their grandparents founded the business in 1942. “It’s my own costs. And, you know, what it is? We have a lot of fixed income people here, and we’re just trying to help out. I mean, I’m not going to lie: I’m a capitalist.
“Do I want to make as much money as I can for me and my family and my employees? Yes. But you know, you have to draw the line, you have to support your community, because your community supports you.”
The ranch sells to restaurants, markets, wholesalers and at farmers markets. It just got a new order from a local Albertson’s supermarket for 500 dozen, Hilliker said. But he is also focused on the small-time buyer: the type that pulls up in a car and leaves with a just enough eggs for themselves or their families.
Shoppers like Vicky and Jeanette.
Sting of scarcity
Both women were feeling the sting of an egg shortage that has emptied store shelves from Washington, D.C., to La Jolla, as cases of highly pathogenic bird flu, also known as H5N1, have surged in this recent outbreak.
For Jeanette Morris, the cost was time and gas. On Wednesday she bought a flat, which she will use to make “regular breakfast, and cakes and cookies.”
She didn’t reroute from another store. Hilliker’s is where she has been buying eggs since the 1960s. But she has to make the trip more often now.
“I usually get two, and I could only get one. That means I have to make another trip back,” she said.
A minute later, Vicky Luttmers stepped out of the shop.
“We have one egg left in our refrigerator,” she said. She used four that morning, in an omelet with fresh asparagus, onion and spinach. Another favorite breakfast dish: eggs over easy. She added, “We eat a lot of eggs!”
Costco, where the Santee resident usually shops, was out. (The store has recalled eggs in other states due to risk of salmonella poisoning, but California’s shortage is bird flu related.) She turned to Facebook for intel and saw a post about this farm. She also heard that Trader Joe’s has affordable eggs, but “these are fresher and it’s a small business,” so she headed there instead. It was her first visit.
The small farm shop, basically a counter with a cash register at the front of a building with an egg washer and a conveyer belt, sells a dozen large eggs for $4.50, a dozen large organic for $6, and a 20-egg flat for $8. Post-It Notes show what’s still in stock as the day wears on and what has sold out.
The farm raised the price of a dozen large by 50 cents, up from $4, around a month ago. That is down from a year ago, when a dozen cost $5, Hilliker said.
Demand has been so high the farm has a new rule: people are allotted one egg item — whether a dozen, 18 or a flat — per day.
The tendrils of this avian flu outbreak reach far: not just spotty supply and higher prices, which economists say could break records if the spread doesn’t reverse course. Shoppers are rethinking breakfast and baking plans and, like Luttmers, swapping egg sightings on social media.
A far more serious effect: The virus has infected 66 humans as of Jan. 6, of which 34 confirmed cases are in California. It caused the death of one person in Louisiana, state officials reported Monday, though the Centers for Disease Control says the risk to human health remains low and no person-to-person transmission has been reported. Of reported infections worldwide from 2003 through 2024, almost half were fatal, according to the World Health Organization.
Hilliker’s is one of a handful of egg and poultry farms in San Diego County. Local birds are currently fine, though the flu showed up here in wild birds in 2022 and 2023 and one poultry flock was infected in 2022.
Mixed in with funny signs — “Cluck around and find out” and “Give ’em a break,” the ranch’s slogan — is a poster that alerts people the farm is a biosecure area.
For Hilliker, every ranch that falls is a source of dread. It means potentially more demand for his eggs, but also a reminder of the flu’s menace.
“We could get it tomorrow and get put out of business. So yes, we’ve very nervous,” he said.
Poultry’s potential
Far from the ranches of East County, in an office in Washington D.C., Bernt Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, crunched some numbers.
Around 130 million birds in the U.S. have been affected by this highly contagious flu since 2022. In the last 30 days alone, “just shy of 13 million birds have been impacted.” Of those, about 8 million have been in California, he said.
“The fact that we’ve seen this many birds impacted, especially in California, regionally, in the last 30 days, is a big deal,” he said.
This shortage is not different from others that have stemmed from the bird flu, he said. Flocks get sick, supply falls and prices go up. One added dimension is the season: Baking is less of a hobby in July. In winter, demand for eggs tends to be higher.
What would it take for egg prices to drop?
“It all depends on avian influenza, is what it really comes down to,” Nelson said. “The poultry industry as a whole is really resilient. They have the ability as a whole to replenish supplies pretty darn quickly, relative to something like beef, (where) there’s a longer timeframe for it to be produced.”
If the outbreak abates, supply will come up and “we might see prices recover some. On the flip side of that,” he added, “if we continue this trend where we’re seeding eight to 10 million birds in a couple month span, if we see that continuing through the spring, I think we could see prices take another jump higher. I think we could see record prices if we don’t see a slowdown in the way this virus is spreading.”
The virus’ spread, he added, has been “quite variable” and hard to predict.
Hilliker said it takes 16-18 weeks for a baby chick to mature into an egg laying hen, and a few more weeks after for egg production to hit its stride of around six eggs per week.
Which means that if flocks get restocked and the virus abates, supply could pick up just in time for the next key egg season: Easter and its dyed eggs, Passover and its baked Challah and spring brunching.