ORCHARD PARK — Josh Allen isn’t selling any frustration over the last two weeks. But now he’s heading to a stadium to face an opponent that has frustrated him more than any in his career.
Allen has traveled to face the New York Jets in MetLife Stadium five times and has come away 3-2, losing each of the last two seasons. He’s thrown for 300 yards twice, but Allen has twice as many interceptions (8) as touchdown passes (4) and has been sacked 15 times with the Buffalo Bills failing to reach 20 points three times.
Since being hired as the Jets’ coach in 2021, no one has given Allen more fits than Robert Saleh. Allen’s passing yards per game drop by 11, his completion percentage by 10 and he’s thrown more interceptions in six games against Saleh’s defense than he has against other AFC East teams in 13 games over the same time period.
Saleh was fired by the Jets Tuesday, and although defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich is now the head coach, it was Saleh’s scheme and Saleh called the plays. But the players are still the same and the Jets boast the No. 2 defense in total yards and in pass defense.
“My sense is they’re going to be prepared to go Monday night,” Allen said. “We’re going to have to handle every shot they throw at us and keep getting back up and moving forward. Have to have a great sense of urgency, get off to a hot start and find ways to stay on the field on third down and score touchdowns when we’re down in the red zone.”
The Jets probably aren’t the ideal team for a quarterback to face when working his way out of a funk. Allen has gone from completing 75% of his passes in the first three games to 42.4 over the last two, while being hit 14 times and sacked four, after being hit twice over the first three games.
New York specializes in getting to the passer, ranking fourth in the league in sacks (18) and sixth with a 29.9% pressure rate. The Jets’ defensive line is similar to the Bills’ secondary in that they simply reload no matter the circumstances.
All-Pro defensive tackle Quinnen Williams is still the centerpiece of the line, but they lost edge rushers Bryce Huff and John Franklin-Myers to free agency and then lost emerging star Jermaine Johnson to a torn Achilles tendon in Week 2, all while trade acquisition Haason Reddick is holding out for a new contract.
Still, 14 of New York’s sacks come from the defensive line, led by former first-round pick Will McDonald IV’s six. The Jets also trust their linemen to go one-on-one more often than the rest of the league, and while they run stunts like everyone else, they don’t do it at the same rate.
“They think they have the guys that can stop you like that,” Bills center Connor McGovern told the Gazette after practice Thursday. “It’s a penetrating front. They try to disrupt the run game and stop you there, then beat you one-on-one in the pass game, let their guys just cover in the wide receivers.”
While the Bills don’t expect Ulbrich to make sweeping changes to the defense, they expect some different wrinkles with a new play-caller. One of the tweaks made by the Jets could be becoming the latest team to offer up more man-to-man coverage against the Bills.
Buffalo’s receivers have struggled to separate over the last two weeks, leading teams to play more man coverage. The Jets prefer to play zone and are a middle-of-the-road blitzing team, but both could change Monday.
The Bills have been blitzed 19 times the past two weeks, versus 20 in the first three games. Buffalo offensive coordinator Joe Brady can help his offensive line set the protection better by being less predictable.
Opponents have blitzed five times on first and 10 the last two games, with only two coming with guard Alec Anderson in the game as a sixth offensive lineman. That’s because the Bills have run on 27 of 46 first downs and Anderson has been in the game on 18 of those first downs, with 15 being running plays.
So when Anderson isn’t in the game, it’s usually a good bet the Bills are going to throw the ball, since they have only done it seven times all season with him in the game on any down. And because the Bills have mustered just 3.2 yards on first downs, they have an average of 7.7 yards to gain on third down, allowing opponents to blitz heavily on an obvious passing down.
An offense playing so far behind the sticks on third down allows the defense to take more risks, while opening up the playbook. Baltimore hurt the Bills by blitzing slot cornerback Marlon Humphrey off the edge and he did a terrific job of not showing blitz until the protection was set and the ball was snapped.
Nearly half of New York’s blitzes have come from the secondary this season. So Allen and Brady must keep the offensive line out of difficult spots on third down.
“We don’t really look for the results,” Bills guard David Edwards told the Gazette. “We care about, like, if you miss a block, or we miss a pressure or whatever, what’s the process? If you approach it that way I think it’s a more freeing way to play the games. If you approach everything with a great process and a great mindset. I think it takes care of itself.”