ORCHARD PARK — It’s been a while since the Buffalo Bills have been on this side of a game.
Four games remain, but the Bills need a win to even have a chance at winning their sixth consecutive AFC East championship. The New England Patriots steal back their crown with an 11th consecutive win Sunday.
The Bills are 1 ½-point road favorites, but their chances of winning the division are slim even if they leave Foxborough with a win. Their odds move from 8% to 17% with a win, but even if the Bills win their four remaining games, their chances are still just 23%, according to the New York Times Playoff Simulator.
That’s because, due to tiebreakers, the Patriots would have to lose two more games despite currently only being two games ahead in the standings. Finding two losses to the Ravens, Jets and Dolphins might be a tough sell.
“We don’t really care too much about who counts us out,” Bills fullback Reggie Gilliam said. “We’ve had ups and downs. One year we were 6-6 and stayed in the playoffs. We just stay right here. We don’t ride the wave.”
The Bills have been in this position before, however. In 2021, they lost a 14-10 home game to the Patriots in early December, then won a convincing 33-21 rematch a few weeks later. In 2023, after a 6-6 start, the Bills ran the table and snatched the division in the regular-season finale following an epic Dolphins collapse.
Wide receiver Khalil Shakir had a hard time recalling details from either season. Gilliam had to be reminded also. Neither seemed to care.
By NFL standards, the first matchup with the Patriots, a 23-20 loss, was ages ago and it was only 10 weeks in real time. The Bills had bludgeoned teams in their 4-0 start and the Patriots were uneven in their 2-2 beginning to the season.
From a Bills perspective, it’s a game they should have won. The Bills committed two turnovers in their own territory and a third in scoring position. The Patriots turned them into 10 points and still needed a 52-yard field goal with 15 seconds left to win.
That’s a long time ago.
New England has won by hook or crook, but it has won every week all the same. And the Bills have been mercurial since that game, with more than a couple puzzling losses on their ledger.
“Every team kind of develops throughout the season,” Bills safety Jordan Poyer said. “You can see they’ve done the same. They’ve gotten a lot better. They’re making really good plays, the offensive coordinator (Josh McDaniels), he makes it hard for defenses. So we have to play well to win.”
•••
Josh Allen’s December dominance is well documented, but the key to Sunday’s game might be establishing running back James Cook. He only had 49 yards on 3.3 yards per carry in the first matchup, one of two games this season he didn’t crack 100 scrimmage yards.
But after allowing 75.4 yards rushing in their first nine games, the Patriots have given up 121 over their last four, coinciding with standout defensive tackle Milton Williams landing on injured reserve with a high-ankle sprain.
New England has allowed over 5 yards per carry in three of those games and the Bills are 6-1 when they average 5 yards or more.
•••
Establishing Cook would help keep MVP candidate Drake Maye off the field. Maye threw for 273 in the first matchup, with some dazzling throws and several easy ones.
Old friend Stefon Diggs was the main beneficiary, with 10 catches for 146 yards. But Diggs has only cracked 100 once since then and has only topped 50 on one other occasion.
Tight end Hunter Henry had two catches for 46 yards in the first matchup and has 45 grabs for 610 yards and five scores on the season. The Bills have allowed 10 fewer receptions (37) to tight ends than the rest of the league, while their 441 yards and two touchdowns are also the best in the NFL.
But the Bills just allowed six catches for 86 yards and a touchdown to Bengals tight end Mike Gesicki. The Bengals did a superb job of getting Ja’Marr Chase and Gesicki matched up on nickelbacks Taron Johnson and Cam Lewis and linebacker Shaq Thompson last week.
The Bengals racked up 13 catches for 141 yards and a touchdown against those players. And Diggs has lined up in the slot two fewer times than he’s been outside this season.
It has been a tough season for Johnson, who has battled nagging injuries and missed six games as a result over the last two seasons since being named second-team All-Pro in 2022. That comes on the heels of missing one in the previous four seasons combined.
“I think there’s some things and plays that he would want back,” Bills defensive coordinator Bobby Babich said. “… Taron is still a really good football player. And we ask him to do a lot of things. Here’s a guy that’s fitting the B-gap and playing man on a slot receiver. … There’s a little bit of up and down, but he’s definitely doing some good things.”
The Bills can limit Maye’s effectiveness by stopping the run. Although Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are among the worst teams in the league in rushing offense, the Bills held them to 110 yards combined.
The Patriots had just 71 in the first matchup, but have topped 100 in six of their last seven games. And despite having little success running the ball in the first meeting, the Patriots did have solid gains in play-action.
The Bills, despite ranking 28th in run defense, opponents have only run play-action 85 times this season, two more than the Rams for the lowest number in the league. And the Patriots rank ninth in the league with 69.1 yards per game off play-action.
In the first game, the Patriots ran 14 play-action passes and racked up 126 yards. But they have given up pressure on those plays all season. Their 11 sacks on play-action is fifth-most in the NFL and their 39.5% pressure rate is ninth.
“We did a good job of making teams one-dimensional,” Thompson said. “Once you make them one-dimensional, it’s hard to get play-action because play-action comes off the run. You stop the run, it’s easy to see play-action, it gets easy to see boot. You stop the run, then everything else is going to be easy to see.”
•••
Cornerback Christian Benford (toe), linebacker Terrel Bernard (elbow) and wide receiver Joshua Palmer (ankle) are questionable for Sunday’s game. Defensive end Joey Bosa (hamstring/wrist) and right tackle Spencer Brown (shoulder) do not have any injury designations.
Benford did not practice Friday after injuring his toe during Thursday’s practice. McDermott said that it happened on a normal football play, and while he doesn’t believe the injury will be long-term, the team is still gathering more information.
Two touchdowns over the last two games made Benford the first player in franchise history to record defensive scores in consecutive games. He also has a sack, a tackle for a loss and a touchdown during that stretch.
It might be a stretch for Bernard to play this week. Baylon Spector has used all of his practice squad elevations and Keonta Jenkins has one remaining. Defensive end Andre Jones may be in line for his first action.
Jones was a seventh-round pick of the Washington Commanders in 2023. He appeared in 13 games with two starts as a rookie and spent last season on their practice squad.
The 6-foot-4, 250-pounder signed to the Bills practice squad after being waived by the Commanders during final cuts. The Bills released him Nov. 25 and re-signed him Dec. 2.