TRAVERSE CITY — The eyes of northern Michigan’s business community are on the looming election season, as the Northern Michigan Chamber Alliance invited two of the state’s leading political experts to size up some of the top state and national political races.
More than 100 area business people turned out at the City Opera House Monday afternoon for the Alliance’s latest “Bully Pulpit” session to hear campaign background and election projections from consultants John Sellek, the founder and CEO of Harbor Strategic, and Adrian Hemond, head of Grassroots Midwest. The forum was moderated by Kyle Melinn, editor and vice president of Michigan Information & Research Service (MIRS), an online news service that covers state government and politics.
“Every election year seems to be a little different from the one prior,” Melinn said. “This year one of the things that stood out the most is however ‘stuck’ everybody is on where they’re voting … it seems like everyone’s had their mind made up for a year-and-a-half.”
Hemond said every year since 2015 he’s told himself “Man, this is weirdest year I’ve lived through in politics … one of these years I’m going to stop saying that — but it’s not going to be this year,” drawing chuckles from the audience.
Both pundits predicted a razor-close presidential race between Democratic candidate Vice-president Kamala Harris and Republican candidate former President Donald J. Trump. Hemond predicted Harris would win the state of Michigan on her way to a presidential victory, while Sellek also predicted a Harris win in Michigan by a “whisker” but forecast a narrow nationwide win for Trump.
All three panelists also noted some significant shifts in this year’s race compared to historic trends, with Melinn noting that Democrats raising significantly more money in this year’s campaign compared to previous election cycles. Hemond also said that Democrats are gaining significant support from affluent, white suburban voters that have been previously been a solid Republican voting block, while more non-college degree white and Black voters are trending toward a Republican vote.
In Michigan’s high-profile U.S. Senate race to replace retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow, both Sellek and Hemond touted Democrat Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s significant fundraising advantage over Republican candidate Mike Rogers, as Slotkin had raised more than $22 million by mid-July, according to Bridge Michigan. While both expected a tight Senate race in Michigan, Hemond expects that Trump will have to carry Michigan if Rogers were to have any chance of winning the Senate seat.
Both experts also predicted that the fight for control of the Michigan House of Representatives — where Democrats currently hold a slim 56-54 seat majority — will also come down to the wire. Sellek projected that post-election day results will see the Republicans holding a 57-seat majority, while Hemond expects a 55-55 deadlock in the state House after the election.
Looking forward, the panelists offered several names to watch in the Michigan’s governor’s race in two years when incumbent Gov. Gretchen Whitmer will be term-limited from seeking re-election. On the Democratic side, Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan — who visited Traverse City last week but wouldn’t discuss his political future — and Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson are likely candidates in 2026. On the Republican side, U.S. Rep. John James who current represents Michigan’s 10th Congressional District is a potential candidate, along with Grand Rapids-area businessman and former congressman Peter Meijer.
Regarding Whitmer’s future, Sellek said the Michigan governor could be in line for a presidential run in four years if Harris doesn’t prevail in this year’s presidential race. Hemond had a different take, saying Whitmer could forego future political office in favor of a national CEO post for a large progressive non-profit organization, and could also be in line for appointments to some of the major corporate boards in the country.
“Gretchen Whitmer is going to become fabulously wealthy basically the second she’s out of office,” Hemond said. “I’m extremely skeptical that she’s going to run for office again, whether it’s for president or for U.S. Senate.”
The panel also weighed in on a state issue that’s a subject of growing interest around northern Michigan — the looming increase in the state’s minimum set to take effect in February that would significantly impact restaurant servers in Michigan by eventually phasing out Michigan’s tip credit.
Sellek said more than 700 Michigan restaurants workers gathered outside the state Capitol last week at a rally to protest against the pending changes, including some hospitality workers from Traverse City.
Sellek and Hemond both said said they’ve been working for several years on the issue and the litigation over the 2018 state laws that were eventually struck down by the state Supreme Court that maintained the minimum wage increase. Hemond said he expects the state Legislature will revisit the issue either this fall or in the lame-duck session following the Nov. 5 election.